Virus Impact on CP

Jeff said:

Rapids 77-78 said:
I don't think you have thought through the ramifications of a Great Depression, which, if we continue on lockdown, we, including your family, will be experiencing.

This is a myth, and economists generally do not agree. Rampant disease causes more economic destruction, because of the cost to try and treat it, the suppression of activity out of fear, and the fact that dead people suck at propping up the GDP. The outcome is economic chaos in either scenario, but it's worse when you don't mitigate it. This has been modeled a hundred different ways, and even in a paper published as recently as last week. The efforts around social distancing create a net benefit of $5 trillion globally, leading to losses of "only" $6 trillion.

Seriously, in the zombie apocalypse, will you go out and stimulate the economy, because the alternative is worse?

This is where MaverickLaunch tells us the paper is wrong because of his vast expertise and opinions, and how consensus isn't fact because an outlier opinion has more weight than consensus. But what he won't do is enumerate the lies of the NYT, because, you know, facts.

Good post, I do not often agree with you.

There are a number of flaws with the white paper you linked, but it's "close enough". I take particular issue with the assumed rate of economic growth; 1.75 % v. the historical rate of about 3%. IMO (degree in econ here) they purposely understated the assumed rate of growth. That's what PHD economists usually do, in my experience. The recovery will be a lot faster than you think.

Our government purposely paid our citizens to stay at home, with reason. The extra 600 dollars per week was actually ingenious. It appealed to the "incentive to idleness" concept and gave a large minority of our citizens a reason to stay @ home. While this action grinds the "free market" portion of my soul, it was the right thing to do. I do NOT like it, but I don't want to see a million citizens die as a result of a lack of money. It's the evil of two lessers....

Dr. Robert Goodman (former managing director of Putnam Mutual Funds) often stated that our government "always does the right thing". As usual, they are. The USA has a lot of money, we as a nation can afford it. History tends to support my POV.

Cedar Point imo will not open this year. They would be insane to do so. No one "needs" to ride rides, eat junk food, and drink too much beer. I go out to my car to drink beer, but that's another story. CF is already planning for this with its latest credit arrangement. In my opinion, they would not have canned out their dividend if they were not planning for a 2020 closure.

vwhoward said:

MaverickLaunch said:

Time to let this thing run it's course before it takes down our country.

Where did ML say that?

This is why I think you are not a good person. Just my opinion. And it's my right to have it. You may be willing to sacrifice your family and friends for the economy and the almighty dollar, but I'm not willing to sacrifice mine. The bad part about this is, you're willing to sacrifice mine with this type of thinking.

cpblue said:

I learned in middle school how viruses replicate in the body. Since his supporters are largely uneducated and ignorant, they will believe him and think you can inject disinfectant to kill viruses inside you. It’s truly stunning.

What a lousy post.

Now can you prove " Since his supporters are largely uneducated and ignorant"?

No, you cannot....

All this talk about the recession and the great depression causing more deaths than the virus seems to ignore the fact that deaths actually went down during those time periods.

https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

Can't let facts get in the way of ideologues.

You can't seriously be saying that a study of the consequences of an economic crash that occurred 90 years ago is valid in today's world. I assure you that the world today is very different from that in the early 1930's.

Thabto said:

I think they could integrate food ordering into their app to help reduce lines at food stands. I have no doubts IT is working behind the scenes on solutions to help remedy lines. And I could see midways being one-way paths or a divider in the middle to separate foot traffic in each direction.

One thing the park has sorely been lacking in has been point of sale technology. Contactless payment options should have been installed a while ago, and so I would hope this would be a great time to do that as to reduce passing cards and cash back and forth. Or, even implementing a wristband concept like Disney where you could store everything in one device.

The above opinion on the park not opening at all is a scary though, and I’m not arguing his logic behind that, but to be fair, you can certainly count me and my family as pass holders who will not be visiting this summer regardless of what the park does for safety. We might consider a slow Sunday in early September but not ride anything. It is what it is and we’ve got 2021 now too so it’s not that big of a deal.

As soon as antibody tests are readily available, I suggest everyone get one. Millions of people will be amazed to learn that they’ve already had it and recovered without even knowing. Then they can get on with their lives and not think that going to a theme park is in some way going to kill them and their entire extended family.

I’m almost certain I have already had it and was one of the fortunate ones who experience no symptoms - I’m a flight attendant and there is an almost zero percent chance that I was not exposed to COVID in the early months of this year when it was running rampant completely unchecked.

Our family usually makes it a tradition to go to CP on the 4th. If they are open, then great, we'll head to the park and enjoy whatever we can. If not, then it is what is. Similar to your approach mgou58.

On the bright side, tee time at Arcadia Bluffs is good now that golf courses can be open. Looking forward to that!

Rapids 77-78 said:

You can't seriously be saying that a study of the consequences of an economic crash that occurred 90 years ago is valid in today's world. I assure you that the world today is very different from that in the early 1930's.

We're better off today. Which means the number of deaths due to a poor economy will be even less.

djDaemon said:

And yet you are unable to specifically cite even a single example of this "consensus at large" being incorrect. You are spreading deadly misinformation.

Already have, and done repeating it. Deadly misinformation. Lmao. I knew your debate skills were weak but good Lord...

I think I have read most of the posts in this thread but I may have missed some but has there been discussion on the very, very low death rate from Covid for relatively young, relatively healthy people? And not just teens and twenties, but people under 60 with good health (not obese, no diabetes, no heart issues) are very unlikely to die from this. And it only gets serious when people have 2 or more of these comorbidities. So my point is what do we all think about the strategy to shelter only those more in danger of dying and allow the rest to get back to living with masks and social distancing. I ask because it seems like a number of posters here do not support any effort to normalize and think they and their kids will all die.

MaverickLaunch said:Already have...

Where?

Your entire "we should end this shutdown because economy" argument is founded upon the idea that the expert scientific and economic consensus is incorrect. And you are claiming the authority to say that this consensus is incorrect based on your observation of the consensus having been wrong many times prior. To my knowledge your observation of this phenomenon is limited to your misinterpretation of the WHO's comments from back in January. If you've made a broader argument that actually holds water I missed it.

So, unless I'm missing something you are arguing that you know better than the experts based on your poor reading comprehension of WHO comments.

^^Why would they address your point, it doesn’t fit their political narrative?

Or it was already addressed many, many weeks ago. The death rate alone is not the concern. Rate of hospitalization, ICU capacity, ventilator capacity, etc., are the concerns here. Because once you need 2,000% of the hospital capacity you have, you're gonna have a bad time.

I mean, that's literally what "the curve" is all about. It's not a political narrative. It's science and math.

ok. To quote someone above, go back to bickering amongst yourselves.

So Master D, what shall my family do? I'm 40, wife is 34. We have a 2 month old baby. We utilize parents, late 60s to early 70s, for childcare. Does one of have to stay home and no longer work? Do we leave our 2 month old with our parents indefinitely until this is behind us? What are our options in this situation? I think you're a tad misguided to think that people of a certain age and health are not contributing members of society and families. They cannot be pushed aside as they are needed by many in similar situations. Or what about those children raised by grandparents. What are they to do? I don't understand how there are people here that are ready to push a generation aside for money and the ability to "get back to work". It blows my mind.

I concede. You pro-shut-downers are right. We open-back-uppers are just being ridiculous and selfish.

Let's just shut it all down until this whole COVID thing blows over.
100% lockdown nationwide. Close everything that's currently open including grocery stores, hospitals, nursing homes, and public utilities.
A few months alone in the dark without food might do us all some good.

Cedar Point is definitely planning to open as I was hired last week and I do my onboarding this coming week.

vwhoward, yeah it’s certainly a complicated situation, more for some people and families than others. But wouldn’t one spouse working be better than neither. Wouldn’t all healthy 60 and unders working be better than nobody. Doesn’t mean we are “shoving aside” the elderly, but protecting them because they fair clearly the worst with the virus. Few hospitals are overrun, Erie as an example the hospitals are empty, and there are plenty of cities like Erie across the country. And as far as I am reading these openings are phased, cautious, with much more awareness and testing capacity now than back in March when it all started. Neither side of this argument can guarantee they are correct. Science, yes, has to be number 1, but that science changes EVERYDAY about this virus.