2016? Who Cares! It's All About 2017 to 2030!

A series of ifs don't equal a deal is all I'm saying. I'm dubious until proven otherwise.

Okay well it's going to be a while. It was true when I remember reading it.

Also, I don't think the contract would have cost "millions" in the sense that construction of those rides cost millions. A huge sum of that cost is in materials and labor. B&M isn't profiting tens of millions on these rides.

CP Maverick said:

It was true when I remember reading it. (Emphasis added)

There's my stumbling point. You may have thought it was true when you remember reading it, but that doesn't mean it is or was true. I remain dubious.

Here's the oldest article I can find with mention of exclusivity.

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/10/28/Business/A_sky_high_nose_dive.shtml

Yes, but...

...the article says that the company signed a "multiyear exclusive deal" with B&M for coasters, yet B&M built plenty of coasters in the next following few years. Maybe that was supposed to say 'dive coasters' or maybe the other parks involved in those following few years just weren't interested in adding a dive coaster to their portfolio.

Like I said, I remember reading it. This was the closest active website that had mentioned it.

Remember how many news stations announced Valravn as the tallest in the world? Places like that regularly leave out critical adjectives.

I know I'm not the only person to remember it, either. It's just not important enough to keep those articles active online. I can't even find the press release, which I know existed in 2004.

CP Maverick said:

Places like that regularly leave out critical adjectives.

Exactly; and you're doing rather the same. I still take this talk of exclusive deals with a grain of salt.

I know I'm not the only person to remember it, either. It's just not important enough to keep those articles active online. I can't even find the press release, which I know existed in 2004.

A lot of people can "remember" it, but no one can provide proof of it.

Man, I was trying to help the discussion about why no one built a dive coaster with relevant information. I didn't expect it to turn into proving Creationism.

I get it, you don't believe me. You can believe whatever you wish, but that doesn't make it false.

Edit: Here is another article from October 2004 that vaguely states the exclusivity contract:

http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2004/10/25/daily27.html

It just seems like a really strange business decision by B&M if it is true.

What makes you say that? Busch wanted an exclusive & premier attraction at their parks. Something you can get no where else in the country. I don't see why it wouldn't happen.

But it doesn't make it true, either. I'm much more inclined to believe that parks weren't building dive coasters because doing so didn't fit into their ongoing plans than that there was a contract between B&M and one company.

EDIT: That's more convincing, but still: why would B&M limit their opportunities like that?

Depends.

1. How much was Busch willing to pay for exclusivity?
2. Was anyone else interested in building one? If not, no money lost giving Busch a few years lead time

Not only Cedar Fair, but Six Flags didn't build one. Same for Dollywood, Lagoon, etc. Hard to believe NO ONE built one without there being some exclusivity clause.

Why is it a strange business decision? Because B&M develops and markets a coaster but can't sell more than two for 10 years because of some contract with Busch? Seems like you would be losing many millions in revenue unless Busch paid many millions to make up for that. Doesn't seem very plausible for either company.

You are assuming that B&M actually profits millions in revenue with a ride design. That simply is not the case. Tagging $1 million to the contract to get ten years is $100,000 per year without needing to do any extra work.

I wouldn't be surprised if the contract was significantly less than $1M in total. That's still a deal for both companies.

How much profit does B&M make from a coaster then? If they would have built 3 or 4 dive machines over the 10 years those would have brought less than a million in profits to B&M? And what about parts sales to keep those coasters running?

You ever met any of those ride guys? They wear really old clothes.

Does it matter to B & M if they sell "3 or 4" dive coasters next year or ten years from now?

Also, how full was their order book? For all anybody knows, they could have been booked solid for 5 years anyway.

CP Maverick said:

...get ten years is $100,000 per year without needing to do any extra work.

But wouldn't it better for the company to get millions of dollars from building coasters than hundreds of thousands of dollars from not building coasters? It just strikes me as a self-defeating idea.

By CP Maverick's own admission, his own "proof" regarding the agreement is "vague".

My admission is that I cannot find the original press about the ride, and have only sourced second-hand examples. For me, the "proof" is the fact that I remember reading about the agreement originally back in 2004. You don't remember that.

Also, again, B&M does not profit millions of dollars per ride. The cost of each ride is based on the cost of the design + materials + labor. Comparison: Hollywood films will spout things like "$100 Million Box Office" but that is not the profit that goes to the studios, aside from the fact they had invested $200 Million in production, plus another $50+M in advertising and distribution. When you read that a new ride cost $20 Million, that is not how much money the designers make, that is how much it cost to produce and assemble the ride. I feel like this is completely overlooked.

The problem that I have with your claim, Noggin, is that you assume a sale that is delayed never occurs.

Merely because there is, say, a 10 year noncompete clause does not mean that B & M loses a single sale. CF bought one for the CP. If it is popular how long do you think it will be before they buy some for CW--either Canada's Wonderland or Carowinds? B & M would still make their "millions" (or whatever) per coaster, just a few years later.

And if their order book is full, or fairly full, could they have fulfilled many sales early on, anyway? Since Shekra, B & M opened 6 coasters in 2006, 3 in 2007, 5 in 2008, 3 in 2009, 2 in 2010 (note the Great Recession), 5 in 2011, 7 in 2012, 2 in 2013, 4 in 2014, 6 in 2015, and 6 this year--including Valravn. How many more orders could they have fulfilled?

Interestingly, their first Dive Machine opened in 1998. (Oblivion at Alton Towers). They only opened 1 more prior to the Busch Garden order--SEVEN years later. Clearly, they were not facing heavy US demand for Dive Machines and may not have felt they were giving up many sales b/c of the non-compete. Or they felt agreeing to Busch's demands was a price worth paying to jump start US sales.

BTW, they did open 5 overseas, with a 6th under construction.

Thanks to rcdb.com