Extended Closure
GoBucks89
jimmyburke
2020TpForSale:
But after viewing and analyzing this post from beginning to the end, line by line, word by word, letter by letter
Please don't overlook every jot & tittle.
Jeff
My question was rhetorical. This is not going to materially change the financial performance of the park, let alone the company.
Jeff - Advocate of Great Great Tunnels™ - Co-Publisher - PointBuzz - CoasterBuzz - Blog - Music
magdrag95
^ I can't help but refute that statement...if a new attraction didn't impact financial performance, why build one in the first place? A basic observation would lead you to conclude Capex spend in new attractions have a direct correlation to financials. That is the pattern in the industry -- continuous high dollar investment in new experiences.
Scott Cameron
From my perspective, I don't think it affected attendance or revenue. This year at least. The resorts have been full most of the year (I stay at Breakers often and check availability quite a bit) and both parks have had pretty good crowds. Again, just my perspective. I don't have numbers to back it up or anything.
Co-founder of the most fun CP Facebook Group - Day Drinking at the Point
Jeff
Read Hildebrant's book. The attendance record is still from the year Raptor opened. The biggest roller coasters of every type since have not been able to replicate that year. There are plenty of other reasons to keep building rides, like replacing those reaching the end of their useful service life, keeping a certain level of global capacity, and keeping things fresh over the long haul. They don't need to build something awe inspiring every year to keep repeat visitors coming back.
Weather will have a greater impact on financial performance than the availability of any one ride.
Jeff - Advocate of Great Great Tunnels™ - Co-Publisher - PointBuzz - CoasterBuzz - Blog - Music
Scott Cameron
Yeah I remember that 1994 year. Wasn't it something like 3.6 million? I think now they're lucky to break 3 but as you said, there are many more reasons beyond attendance for new attractions. And as far as revenue goes, I think they've learned to make more money with less in attendance anyway (resorts, fastlane, much more prevalent alcohol sales, much better food options, etc.).
Co-founder of the most fun CP Facebook Group - Day Drinking at the Point
veritas55
Yes, you invest $20m-$25 million in a ride (plus marketing costs) because you DON'T expect a decent return of investment in terms of its most tangible measures, like attendance and season pass purchases, and, correspondingly, in-park spending, particularly during its initial year.
And, obviously, no one other than the 10 crazed enthusiasts even pay attention to that marketing and the new ride expenditures, much less change their attendance behavior based this mega ride and whether or not it's operational.
Thus, it's completely irrelevant whether or not your $20m+ ride is a gigantic paperweight during its premier season. It has zero economic impact on the park.
Of course, if any of that were true (or even made any economic sense), why in the world would a park make these investments if they had no economic return? Why even spend advertising money or get press if it makes zero difference to the general public if your big new ride even exists, much less if it's open.
The answer, of course, is they do it for fun -- everyone knows that. (Oh, and to increase global capacity...)
Someone should tell Cedar Point they are idiots -- stop spending all this money on big new rides that have no impact on people's spend.
CoasterLine
Expected ROI is going to be based off the overall impact of the investment over the lifetime of the purchased ride, not year one.
If you think a park is expecting to recoup the investment in one singular year, you are delusional.
Top Thrill 182
If Cedar Fair (sorry, I can't call it Six Flags yet) agrees that the Top Thrill 2 situation is no big deal, I really need to get a job there, because the companies I've worked for have made very big deals about much smaller issues.
Thrills Around the Corner!
veritas55
CoasterLine:
Expected ROI is going to be based off the overall impact of the investment over the lifetime of the purchased ride, not year one.
If you think a park is expecting to recoup the investment in one singular year, you are delusional.
What's delusional is to pretend the opening year is not important -- as in the most important year.
Again, if it weren't, then why do so many parks continue to open new rides yearly....
CoasterLine
For a typical run-of-the-mill ride, yes the first year is extremely important.
Is the downtime desired? No.
Has it created a negative revenue impact for the park with it being down? Minimal at most.
Has it created disappointment? Absolutely.
A ride like TT2 is on the upper tier of experiences that will continue to draw people year over year the same as it would year one. It's in a relatively rare sects of rides that people will continuously come back to experience for many years to come.
The ride isn't a standard experience that people can find at X, Y or Z other parks.
Had Cedar Point been trying to open a Tilt-a-Whirl and it had been down nearly the entirely of it's first year, yes, you'd be correct.
Jeff
veritas55:
Thus, it's completely irrelevant whether or not your $20m+ ride is a gigantic paperweight during its premier season. It has zero economic impact on the park.
Cool, you got it!
No one says it's not a bummer, or that the company wouldn't prefer that it was actually operating. But as others have also pointed out, big cap ex ROI is measured in years, if not decades. It's also been pointed out over and over that it will not likely materially affect attendance, let alone financial performance, because there are decades of history that demonstrate this.
Jeff - Advocate of Great Great Tunnels™ - Co-Publisher - PointBuzz - CoasterBuzz - Blog - Music
veritas55
Thank God you guys aren't running amusement parks, much less publicly traded companies (as best as I can tell).
They'd all be bankrupt as you jabber about Cap Ex amortized over years (and yet ignore Year One as the critical year of evaluation ....) and how your expenditures have zero material impact on attendance, "let alone financial performance...."
Somehow, I doubt the CF/CP financial folks are just shrugging off this "financial non-event."
DA20Pilot
Look, it's not going to have a giant effect upon this year's numbers. I agree with that in principle.
I also agree that it is a big deal on a number of different levels to have a much-hyped marquee new attraction fail so spectacularly 8 days after its inauguration.
Now, if the thing never gets right and $25 mil capital expenditure is written off and wasted, then I agree, shareholders would and should be quite displeased. $25 mil is a lot of $$ even for an $8 billion company.
For a little perspective on that, CF sold Knott's soak city to fund the Breakers renovation, as opposed to financing it via debt or equity and keeping the waterpark, ostensibly because tens of miilions of dollars is a lot of money to have on the right side of your books.
But I don't expect TT2 to be a paperweight or a total write off. I expect that they'll solve the issues and end up with a reliable ride that provides decades of service, even if that maybe doesn't happen until next year.
Jeff
veritas55:
They'd all be bankrupt as you jabber about Cap Ex amortized over years (and yet ignore Year One as the critical year of evaluation ....) and how your expenditures have zero material impact on attendance, "let alone financial performance...."
I and others have explained to you why this isn't the case, with evidence. Attendance and guest spending are the business, and these are not affected by one ride, as attendance trends show.
Jeff - Advocate of Great Great Tunnels™ - Co-Publisher - PointBuzz - CoasterBuzz - Blog - Music
CoasterHawk
Will Top Thrill 2 be the new ride for 2025? Or will it be Top Thrill 3?
Cedar Pointer
Jeff:
Read Hildebrant's book. The attendance record is still from the year Raptor opened.
Update your operating software. 1994 is no longer the most attended year. If building new coasters did not drive attendance and Revenue they wouldn't build the big coasters. Turns out the best year for attendance was the year they built their best coaster.
1994: 3.617 Million
2019: 3.731 Million
I get why you wouldn't understand that though seeing as it wasn't in Hildebrant's Book.
The Crystal Method is the only way to find The Winner!
Cedar Pointer
CoasterLine:
Expected ROI is going to be based off the overall impact of the investment over the lifetime of the purchased ride, not year one.
If you think a park is expecting to recoup the investment in one singular year, you are delusional.
In that case, Im sure TT1 was a huge success! Wouldn't you agree? I mean, Im sure they man ROI over the lifespan of the coaster.
The Crystal Method is the only way to find The Winner!
CoasterLine
I'm not sure what sarcastic point you're trying to make but no, TTD likely never have ever saw ROI.
$25 million dollar investment with frequent downtime, required $1+ million a year in maintenance, and had an accident which lead to horrible press, multiple millions in settlement costs and shortened the life of the product to further generate any additional revenue for the park (in it's initial form).
I doubt Cedar Point saw a directly attributable revenue gain to TTD of $50+ million dollars.
XS NightClub
Well it is hard to quantify,
but the amount of free press and publicity they got for many years off the ride has to be figured in.
so the ROI was more than likely there.
now the ROI on other duds… that’s questionable;
-rougaroo
-the onion patch weird character thing
- the boat ride reimagined
- the beach revitalization/theme parties
New for 2024- Wicked Twister Plus
magdrag95
Yeah -- it would be hard to quantify the hard dollars for TTD but I guarantee you it's on the map. The Dragster theme was widespread and put the park on the map. To argue new rides don't represent a huge opportunity is foolish.
jimmyburke
Kevinj, I was wondering the same thing, and I certainly hope it wasn't referring to the Sunflower "Field of Hope". I'm not saying that's what is referred to, just speculating.
I certainly poke fun at things on here and often contribute smart-a$$ comments, but I really don't approve of mocking a cause such as Prayers from Maria which began after a horrible loss for a family.
Again, maybe it was referring to something else like weed patch where Cedars used to be.....
GoBucks89
Onion patch was referenced by same poster in this thread:
JUnderhill
I think the beach revitalization was a huge success. Since the beach was already there all they had to do was remove what was in the way and utilize the natural beauty of what they have sitting there. Financially I can't imagine the items that were part of that project being a failure either such as Gatekeeper, the Grand Pavilion, Lakeside Pavilion etc... There have always been boats near the Cedar Point beach but I cannot recall seeing as many as have been there this year. Outside of a few bad weather days the beach and Boardwalk have been fairly busy this season. Boardwalk nights is also a pretty fun event, much better than I expected as there are little events and shows going on every 15 minutes or so in different locations. If I have any complaint I wish they had some more food options other than the coney dog.
Scott Cameron
I agree, Boardwalk Nights really exceeded my expectations. A lot of talent, I was impressed. Hoping to make it back before it ends.
Co-founder of the most fun CP Facebook Group - Day Drinking at the Point
Jeff
Cedar Pointer:
I get why you wouldn't understand that though seeing as it wasn't in Hildebrant's Book.
Do you think that being a dick is going to increase your longevity here? What's your source? If you're quoting the TEA/AECOM numbers, I can guarantee you that they're wrong.
Actually, doesn't matter. One year out of 29 that was higher makes not a trend, or even a vague generalization. You don't have the "gotcha" that you think, you have an anecdote. 28 other years did not exceed 1994.
Furthermore, if the park had as little as 3 million visitors, most rides under current operations aren't even doing 1.5 million rides, so at best, only 50% of the visitors even ride the new hotness. Less of a percentage if attendance is higher.
Attendance will not suffer from the lack of Top Thrill 2, let alone harm the larger company. No amount of hand wringing here will change that.
Jeff - Advocate of Great Great Tunnels™ - Co-Publisher - PointBuzz - CoasterBuzz - Blog - Music
TomT
Jeff:
I and others have explained to you why this isn't the case, with evidence. Attendance and guest spending are the business, and these are not affected by one ride, as attendance trends show.
As is often the case here, this thread is all over the place, and I’m losing track of who is arguing what. But, I want to point out that, although Hildebrant wrote that they did not realize a permanent increase in base level attendance following the introduction of a new major attraction, he immediately followed that by saying that you couldn’t control the weather, but you could control the right attraction. And his book is replete with examples of how a new attraction did or did not boost attendance as expected. His book has plenty of examples of how they looked forward to that one-year attendance boost.
So, I am pretty sure that Cedar Fair would have liked to see that one-year bump reflected in their next annual report. As it now stands, they are probably hoping that the attendance numbers will nevertheless be good enough to offset the lack of the anticipated boost, allowing them to downplay the impact of the ride closure.
veritas55
There you go, Tom, trying to provide appropriate context for the Holy Scripture that is the Hildebrant book (and making points that actually make economic/ business sense).
Be prepared to be punished for economic rationality.
0g
As has been noted, the fact that Top Thrill 2 has a “disastrous” first season is not on its own going to have a significant impact on the relationship between Cedar Point and Zamperla. What is far more important is how Zamperla is responding to the situation. If Zamperla provides best in class support to get the ride up and running, the down time this first season will be very quickly forgiven. If Zamperla has the attitude “it’s your ride now, it’s your problem not ours” then yes, this down time will be significant.
Almost every ride that goes over 100MPH has had some major problems with it at some point.
-Superman the Escape: Opened 10 months late
-Tower of Terror (Dreamworld): More or less a clone of Superman, so they fixed most of the initial issues
-Top Thrill Dragster: Threw a decorative tire in it’s first season (they got lucky it was on the lagoon side rather than the queue side), closed half it’s first season, sprayed shards of metal all over the riders when the cable frayed, thew a flag plate into someone standing in line, took ~5 years to get the ride to be reliable enough that it wasn’t a crap shoot if it would actually be open when you visited the park
-Kinda Ka: Shredded the bottom of a train during a test launch
-Ring Racer: There was an explosion in the launch system. The ride never ran over 100MPH
--Dodonpa / Do-Dodonpa – A passenger was hit by a part of the train (plastic cover), incidents of broken bones on the ride
- Formula Rossa: Been closed since January (at least 6 months as of writing this) with no re-opening date given
-Red Force: I’m not aware of any major incidents on this ride.
Unless there is a Red Force incident that I’m not aware of, It took Intamin 20 years of building 100+ MPH coasters to create a new design without significant issues. S&S attempted to build 2 100+ MPH coaster, neither of which are operating. It just isn’t realistic to think that there wasn’t going to be a non-trivial risk of something leading to significant down time. Disappointing – absolutely. This is very disappointing, but at this point, that is all it is. Very disappointing.
JUnderhill
Today is the first time I’ve been at the park since last Friday morning but at that time silver train was fully assembled including all seats and the seat back covers. Today a row of seats are missing and the covers are off again. I didn’t see anyone actively working on it but it’s a change from the last time I was here.
XS NightClub
Some schools are starting this week for the 24-25 year. Even more schools sports programs have started.
The park is under 4 weeks from reduced operating days and the unofficial end of summer Labor Day.
With no visual testing happening at all, I don’t see a summer opening for TT2. Perhaps halloweekends.
New for 2024- Wicked Twister Plus
Jordan_Vanichek
Maybe those extra 2 days they added to the season are because Zamperla expects the ride to open by then.
*sarcastic eyeroll*
2020TpForSale
Time for my monthly post about Zamperla's own spokesman stating they were "pushing the boundaries of engineering".
Did Zamperla bite off more than they can chew? This wasn't even a brand new ride. Half the ride was already built for them.
Campfreak06, reborn
mgou58
I mentioned this last week but I do wonder if the park is not able to get TT2 up and running this month would they still try and open it for the weekends only operations? Or call it a wash for the season? Or do they open it for whatever time they can get in?
DA20Pilot
My guess is that if they are confident it is really fixed, they will open it then, regardless of how few days are remaining in the season. They'll get some real-world runs in, build confidence amongst the public that it will be running next season, and provide a little guest goodwill. The only caviat I see is if there is staffing issue.
eChameleon
Personally I think it would be silly to open a ride for a handful of days. What's the rush? Keep it closed, work on it all offseason, and then open it day 1 2025 and give it a 100% reliability rating and we're golden.
JUnderhill
Once the ride is deemed safe to operate I also agree that CP would open it regardless of the days remaining in the season. If they are given the green light on October 31st it would be open on the bonus days of 11-1 and 11-2. That being said I do not have much confidence that it will re-open this season.
The last time I walked by the ride yesterday there was a group of 5 workers leaving the exit, one was from Cedar Point and there was also one from Carowinds, Valley Fair and Kings Dominion. I could not tell where the last person was from but they did have the Cedar Fair logo on their sleeve. I tried to eavesdrop on them but it was loud and I failed to hear what they were talking about, could have been the upcoming football season for all I know. My one and only shot to get the inside scoop and I failed!
Closed topic.