Why Cedar Fair Might Be Struggling This Year

I never paid much attention to the restrooms but it gets brought up so often on pointbuzz that i found myself noticing how bad a lot of them were this year. Kings Island and Wonderland, too. Then, at Carowinds last week it was so noticeable how nice the Harmony Hall and new Camp Snoopy restroom (right next to Harmony hall) were. AC, clean, automatic everything. It would be fantastic and I think a good investment for the parks to look at those as a model. It sounds like the new Shores one Pete mentioned is like that, but I haven't been in that one.

^^They did offer everything a la carte, but it was $5 per sample if you bought them individually, which I agree would scare me away given the portion sizes.

At least at Cedar Point, I'm not sure if it was a smart move to increase the walk up gate admission to $72 for an adult ticket from $67 the year before. That's almost an 8% increase in one year. Also, I'm willing to bet that CP Shores has NOT seen a decrease in attendance (separate attendance stats from the main park) from last year based on the totally full lot that I've experienced in the back of the park multiple times this year. Yes, the extreme summer heat/humidity is probably putting some focus on the waterpark more so than the amusement park. There has been more of an advertising push toward the water park on TV this year than in years past also. Just some thoughts.

I only made it to the park once while Fire & Ice was going on, and don't think I saw anyone with any of the samplings. Maybe it will take a year and some good word-of-mouth for guests to realize the option is there. It is a little more hidden than Brew & BBQ. With the later start time, many guests might have worked past that area towards the back of the park as well.

How were the sample sizes compared to Food & Wine? The first time I saw some of the Food & Wine portion sizes I choked as well. I think the lanyard we got for that a couple years ago was $60 for a mix of food and drink samples.

The Fire and Ice samples were quite small. The Taco I got might have has used a 3-4 inch tortilla, and finished in 3 bites. Good but not nearly worth the $5 (I understand amusement park markups, but this was extreme for a mass produced mini taco). It stopped me from getting anything else or doing the full tour. Brew and BBQ I felt had bigger samples, and while the quality in general was just 'ok' would only run you $1.66 a ticket/ sample.

^^They have been heavily discounting admission this past month, and the park now seemed to have more normalized crowds for the time of year, if not even more busy that normal. Great for meeting attendance goals, but I'm wondering about per-cap and revenue in general.

Grantw said:

To add on to the staffing of college students, I think there has also been a dramatic shift in students and industries placing way more of an importance on taking internships and co-ops during summers. This makes it a lot tougher for the summer tourism industry to lure college students in, no matter their pay scale, when the job isn't going to provide direct experience in the students future industry.

This is 100% true and I have thought this for a long time. In high school, I had every intention of working at Cedar Point. Something about being on the shores of Lake Erie everyday just intrigued me. However, I got to college and I learned how important it is to get experience in my industry. They are pushing that more and more every year. Combine that with the less than ideal living conditions at the park, they are destined to see a decrease in the interest of students.

Unfortunately, there is no solution that can drastically change this. This is just the way industries are these days. Their partnership with BGSU could help shift the needle but it won't be enough.

Perhaps next season they can recruit some help from the DOC and start a prison work-release program. Now that CF is allowing visible tattoos and all maybe its time to go full Monty.

I’m surprised it took this long into the season for someone to associate tattoos with inmates...

I think you have that backwards; the association was inmates with tattoos. That’s a subtle but important distinction.

—Dave Althoff, Jr.

Hmm. I don’t think so. And if so, it was a little too subtle. Either way, it doesn’t offend me, so...

XS NightClub said:

The U.S. is experiencing its first major financial expansion in over a decade, so the middle income base demographics maybe skewed to higher budget vacations than prior years.

"Economic expansion" is, to my admittedly-limited economic knowledge, YOY GDP growth. So I'm not sure what you're basing this claim on, considering average annual US GDP growth between 2009-17 is 1.39%, which is right in line with historical trends. And in fact, GDP growth in 2017 was a measly 0.37%.

Further, inflation has resulted in nearly-flat real wage growth.

To be fair, recent 2018 GDP data (which to my knowledge is mostly estimated) has been strong, but there's no data I'm aware of that points to any long term trend that is significantly different from the strong economy we've enjoyed for the last 7+ years. I suppose you could point to consumer confidence, which is notably up, but that metric usually indicates people across the income spectrum are more willing to spend money, which to my mind should result in stronger performance specifically for places like amusement parks. Consumer confidence, combined with low unemployment, doesn't result in just one income bracket moving to a higher one. It leads to all income brackets spending money.

djDaemon said:

"Economic expansion" is, to my admittedly-limited economic knowledge, YOY GDP growth. So I'm not sure what you're basing this claim on, considering average annual US GDP growth between 2009-17 is 1.39%, which is right in line with historical trends. And in fact, GDP growth in 2017 was a measly 0.37%.

Further, inflation has resulted in nearly-flat real wage growth.

To be fair, recent 2018 GDP data (which to my knowledge is mostly estimated) has been strong, but there's no data I'm aware of that points to any long term trend that is significantly different from the strong economy we've enjoyed for the last 7+ years. I suppose you could point to consumer confidence, which is notably up, but that metric usually indicates people across the income spectrum are more willing to spend money, which to my mind should result in stronger performance specifically for places like amusement parks. Consumer confidence, combined with low unemployment, doesn't result in just one income bracket moving to a higher one. It leads to all income brackets spending money.

1.39% is right in line with historical trends? Your link says average growth from 1947 to 2018 was 3.22%. 1.39% sucks. The term new normal was coined in this period for forward long term low growth expectations. GDP growth in 2017 was not .37% per your link. That was the part of GDP growth attributed to government spending. 2017 GDP growth was 2.6, almost double the prior growth rate of 2009-2017. 2018 is averaging like 3.2% at this point. You are correct there is no data that points to a long term trend, but the statement is meaningless as their is no data that says this is not a long term trend either. The only data is current data that states the last year and a half has blown the doors off the period 2009-2017. How did we read the same link?

KANGtheCONQUEROR said:

1.39% is right in line with historical trends? Your link says average growth from 1947 to 2018 was 3.22%. 1.39% sucks.

First, why quote the entire post right above yours?

Second, I apparently linked to the wrong data. I meant to link to annual growth rates, which are more accurate of economic health than quarterly data as they are less subject to minor, irrelevant fluctuations.

Third, term definition. "Trend" is a noun, defined as "a general direction in which something is developing or changing." Go to the annual GDP growth chart, select "MAX" as the time period and look at the trend of that line. You'll see that, aside from some outliers, annual GDP growth bounces between 1-5%, which matches the average annual growth of 3.2% and also means 1.39% is in line with historical trends. That "MAX" version of the chart also makes another thing clear - we are not in an unprecedented-in-the-last-decade period of GDP growth, which was the claim I was contesting. Aside from the Great Recession dip, what we're seeing now is typical of the trend we've seen since the Great Recession, not the "first major financial expansion in over a decade."

The only data is current data that states the last year and a half has blown the doors off the period 2009-2017.

Now change the date range to "10Y" and look at annual growth rates. See those peaks around 2011 and 2015?

Finally, take a look at GDP per capita, date range set to "MAX." Or even set to "10Y." Notice how the trend of the curve (or data bars @ 10Y) is relatively constant, again aside from the dip from the Great Recession? That does not suggest to me that we're experiencing the "first major financial expansion in over a decade." Nor does it suggest we've "blown the doors off the period 2009-2017."

But really, all of this is too in the weeds. My overall point is that even if we assume, despite the data, that we were experiencing the US' "first major financial expansion in over a decade," it wouldn't really explain an attendance dip, at least in my opinion. A healthy economy with a confident consumer would likely mean more people in the park. Even if some previous CF customers moved "up" to Disney or whatever, presumably others would move up from having not been able to afford a CF park visit before.

I’m still curious why we are calling this year a “struggle” for Cedar Fair. If anything I’d call it a set back. I mean, Halloweekends hasn’t even started yet.

Because some folks have a whole "sky is falling" mentality every time something doesn't work out the way the expect it.

This year has been disappointing for CP and CF as a whole, there is no denying that. Especially when you factor in the marquee additions they made at some parks. But there has also been progress in other areas, particularly out of park revenues, which I can only expect to grow as they continue to look into projects like Sports Force Park or the on property hotel at Carowinds.

If attendance took another dip over the next couple of years that would be more concerning, but for all we know this is an anomaly and next year the numbers could bounce right back.

^ Exactly! That was put in great words, and I couldn’t agree more.

Still doesn’t address why SIX, Disney, Universal, Vail, etc... are all having great years and CF isn’t. An anomaly is one, maybe two parks having off years. They have one park having a good year, with massive investment and in CP terms multi year investments that have shown little roi. And this next year there is virtually nothing at any CF park in the U.S. other than Carowinds. It’s gonna be a rougher season than last.
If you don’t think management is in a ‘sky is falling’ WTF happened this year mentality you’re an ostrich with your head in the ground.

CF has no cohesive marketing campaign, it still operates like a two-park county fair spread out throughout the county. The chain really needs to move its headquarters from Sandusky and to Charlotte for the overall good of the company. * edit(For hiring purposes,the talent pool would be exponentially larger out of Sandusky. Plus the former Paramount HQ infrastructure was already there. )
The bad part about that is it would eventually lose the focus on CP and it eventually will become just another mediocre park.

I don't see what good moving the HQ would do. It would be the same regardless of location. Plus in doing that, you would be uprooting the employees and that would incur moving expenses. If you're talking about cheaper taxes, they could just easily put a new HQ off point, like in Huron Township or even over by SFP, which I think is Huron Township. That would not require uprooting anybody. Maybe that's the plan for the new land they just bought.

i thought the "lack of a cohesive marketing plan" was more by choice than by ignorance. CF was criticized by insiders and outsiders after the Paramount acquisition for trying to apply the Cedar Point formula to every park. A few years back, they emphasized that they had subsequently done more localized market research and that each park seemed to have its own identity and that was going to be how they focused investments and marketing going forward.

I don't see what moving the HQ really does to help things. I thought I had heard that Zimmerman was working out of Charlotte most of the time anyway. With Webex, GoToMeeting, etc, physical location isn't terribly important these days.

It's possible that some of the downturn is due to bad experiences due to staffing the last couple years. It's also possible that it's just a leveling off after seven or eight record breaking years in a row. It's also possible that they're losing certain demographic groups as they cater too much to one group, but not another. From reading Facebook comments on CPs own social media and a group made up of former employees, you'd think CP was the most expensive park on the planet and offers a poor value to its customers compared to yesteryear. I happen to disagree, but maybe it's something they need to look at since there seem to be a good number of people who feel that way.

I happened to think the "a place like no other" ad was the best one CP ever had. Of course I'm already a fan of the place and it just gave me "all the feels" when I saw it. To me, it seems like it would be very effective, but maybe the ad merely preaches to the choir and doesn't entice anyone new. I don't know.

I really do like the ‘a place like no other’ and the tie-in tags they have with it.

‘Best Day of Summer’ is ridiculous; it’s cheesy, unrealistic and a setup for disappointment.