Why Cedar Fair Might Be Struggling This Year

I think you could make the case that the extra visit per year is largely driven by the enormity of the Halloween stuff in most markets. It seems like the right reaction is to raise pass prices, and I worry (based on Six Flags' experience) that the tendency is to start lowering pass prices to entice more sales. The regional players I think have a relatively static potential audience, so I don't think chasing head count growth is the right thing. You just bring in people who spend less and potentially cause more issues and crowd your parks. I can't prove that they're under-pricing, but as an alternative to the Orlando parks, you've got a long way to go before you're not competitive.

On the CP earnings call, management mentioned going to a membership concept. Following Six Flags lead on that. Though Cedar Fair does not appear to be following the Six Flag lead on the pricing of passes/meal plans/flash pass/etc. At least from what I have seen, Six Flags appears to be cheap selling all of those. To me, Cedar Fair is not doing that (at least not yet).

I agree that regional parks are more limited in terms of geographic draw. But population growth (or lack thereof) can point to different directions in terms of growth. Growth opportunities are different with Cedar Point and Carowinds as a result. Without population growth, you can increase attendance by cheap selling passes. You can also improve the experience/broaden it and increase visits by the same number of people. Former may well spend less in the parks though the latter may spend more.

Population growth changes a lot. You can improve the experience to drive growth but you have a growing group of potential customers as well. Big reason for the Paramount acquisition.

In some ways and for some people, the Orlando parks are alternatives. But in many ways and for many people, they aren't.

I guess what I'm saying is the opportunity for growth by head count is limited, but the opportunity to separate the same people from more cash is potentially larger. Pass sales by any math, at five visits average, dilutes admission revenue unless they get up to the $200-ish range for passes. To maintain the status quo, you have to balance that with higher per capita spending.