Virus Impact on CP

It's all about the money man. Follow it along and it becomes pretty clear. Our governor (DeStantis) deems WWE wrestling an "essential business" the same day that the former WWE CEO, a very outspoken Trump supporter, pledged $18 million toward Republican 2020 re-election via her PAC.

I just yesterday bought the following seeds- watermelon, corn, butternut squash, pea, carrot, cayenne pepper. They were right there in front of me, at the dollar store of all places, for 25 cents a packet.

easy pea-zy.

99er said:

It's all about the money man. Follow it along and it becomes pretty clear. Our governor (DeStantis) deems WWE wrestling an "essential business" the same day that the former WWE CEO, a very outspoken Trump supporter, pledged $18 million toward Republican 2020 re-election via her PAC.

18 million of Totally-Not-Bribe-Money that they easily spent despite laying off 30 wrestlers and counting as well as a whopping 40% of their other employees. The wrestling community is *very* pissed at Vince right now, for good reason. Yes, everyone is laying people off due to the pandemic. But unlike many businesses, the WWE didn't HAVE to.

(I realize I just sinned against the commandment Thou Shalt Not Double Post. My apologies. :P )

Oh I know. I have a few friends who work directly for the WWE. It's been interesting to see the differing views on all of this. One thing for sure though is they definitely lost some pretty damn talented touring crew for good.

The number of new cases reported by the Ohio Department of Health rose from 9,107 on Friday to 10,222 on Saturday. Friday had seen the largest single day case jump of 693 cases, which the state surpassed today (Saturday 4/18) with 1,115 new cases. Sure as hell doesn't sound like flattening the curve or going downward to me. Let's hurry and re-open stuff on May 1st though.... you know cause everything's getting better. Gotta get that $ coming back into the state. At what cost? This is all money driven without much regard to human safety. More infections coming, guaranteed. Idiots.

My biggest fear right now is that everything opens up, we realize we f**d up and the situation gets worse causing the world to shutdown longer and through the holiday season. I'm good with closing everything down all summer long but the winter season, the holiday season, that isn't gonna sit well.

I thought I read somewhere and even heard it during one of the daily addresses that the numbers are now including probable cases, which are just assumed if they are showing the symptoms but weren't tested for it. Until there's sufficient testing available, I think the numbers might be skewed a little bit.

Edit: Yes it does include probable, you can see it here: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/home

^ Exactly. Until this is all over we won't have accurate numbers to work with.

And of course the number of people testing positive will increase as testing increases. But the majority of those testing positive have few or no symptoms.

I have several friends on the front lines (nurses) who have all said that for the last couple weeks, pretty much anyone who comes into the hospital is being coded "likely covid". Even when dying for completely unrelated reasons. For example a middle age guy came in with heart attack symptoms, died, cause of death was listed as covid. He was never tested and had no symptoms.

I'm told they are doing this for financial reasons, though admittedly I do not know the how or why on that part.

CPfan1976 said:

The number of new cases reported by the Ohio Department of Health rose from 9,107 on Friday to 10,222 on Saturday. Friday had seen the largest single day case jump of 693 cases, which the state surpassed today (Saturday 4/18) with 1,115 new cases. Sure as hell doesn't sound like flattening the curve or going downward to me.

Way to leave out details on that statistic. Almost half of those 1,115 cases came from Marion prison (some 360 prisoners and 100 staff) because they began testing heavily there. Surprise surprise. The more testing they do, the higher the jump of cases per day. You need the whole picture, not just the 'number' to understand what is going on.

Invertalon said:

CPfan1976 said:

The number of new cases reported by the Ohio Department of Health rose from 9,107 on Friday to 10,222 on Saturday. Friday had seen the largest single day case jump of 693 cases, which the state surpassed today (Saturday 4/18) with 1,115 new cases. Sure as hell doesn't sound like flattening the curve or going downward to me.

Way to leave out details on that statistic. Almost half of those 1,115 cases came from Marion prison (some 360 prisoners and 100 staff) because they began testing heavily there. Surprise surprise. The more testing they do, the higher the jump of cases per day. You need the whole picture, not just the 'number' to understand what is going on.

He did say that the #'s would be skewed......

Mavlaunch...maybe you should've supported local businesses earlier rather than relying on big box stores for your seeds. Our hardware stores have seeds, and our greenhouses are selling starts, curbside orders. Then you check Amazon for seeds? Try a reputable American seed source like Baker Seed Company or Gurney's. And if you've actually been gardening for any amount of time like you say, you should already have half your seeds saved from last year. No misinformation spread here...everything I said was absolutely true, and still is. I mean, even Horrock's is open. Not sure where in Michigan you're from, but you should have plenty of options. Especially considering you can't plant your garden until our last frost date. Which is usually around Mother's Day. Speaking of misinformation spread, way to go on that third hand knowledge of that heart attack victim's covid code. Cool story, bro.

I am not an avid gardener, just recreational. And where I live you need to start your plants Indoors. If you wait till last frost you have very little harvest.

That you assume I do not support my local stores is pretty ignorant. I went there first. Sold out. HD and Lowe’s have plenty but not legal to sell. How many stores (read: how much covid exposure) must I endure to find seeds?

The heart attack story was second hand, not third ... from a woman I’d trust with my life. I get that there’s a lot of misinformation out there but assuming everything is a lie is pretty absurd

The only thing you have to start inside in Michigan are peppers and tomatoes. And those can be picked up curbside at your local greenhouses. We have many in our area that are doing this. Absolutely nothing else is affected by planting after last frost here. Believe me, I am more than a recreational gardener.

Not a gardener, but why wait until last frost to plant seeds outdoors when you could start them indoors right now or even a few weeks ago? Seems like that would really extend the growing season.

Some things do much better without the stress of transplanting. It can make things like cucumbers and peas actually take longer to bear fruit even though they were started earlier. And stunt them as well. The only thing I transplant are tomatoes and peppers. Onions and garlic are planted in the fall. Potatoes have been in the ground since the first week of April. Everything else is direct sow for best results. We grow enough in our garden to last most of the year between canning, freezing, and dehydration.

vwhoward said:

The only thing you have to start inside in Michigan are peppers and tomatoes. And those can be picked up curbside at your local greenhouses. We have many in our area that are doing this. Absolutely nothing else is affected by planting after last frost here. Believe me, I am more than a recreational gardener.

Incidentally, those are the two things I’m referring to. But we are getting off topic. You can buy lotto tickets but not those seeds in big box stores, and I’ve not been able to source them otherwise. It’s insane. You could tell me where to buy them tomorrow and that does not change the fact that the policy is asinine.

Invertalon said:
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Way to leave out details on that statistic. Almost half of those 1,115 cases came from Marion prison (some 360 prisoners and 100 staff) because they began testing heavily there. Surprise surprise. The more testing they do, the higher the jump of cases per day. You need the whole picture, not just the 'number' to understand what is going on.

So....what's your explanation for another record of 1,380 new cases on Sunday? Now we're up to 11,602 from 10,222 the day before. Ohio is #15 ranked for the most cases in the USA. The point is....You DON'T base re-opening things back up in 11 days when there is NO "downward" curve in the stats. That's just idiotic thinking and purely pressure coming from places in Washington DC to boost the economy. I've applauded everything Mike DeWine (governor of Ohio) has chosen to do up until this point but man can't wait to hear the press conference on Monday explaining this "New York" type of thinking.

Human beings love numbers. That’s a fact. But I think you have to look at what the numbers actually mean, where they come from, etc. Numbers in a vacuum mean nothing. I have no idea what Ohio’s situation is and don’t pretend to. But one thing I’ve observed in this pandemic is the reporting of numbers which may or may not be on an equal playing field, followed by fear mongering.

i think everyone needs to take numbers with a grain of salt. The one thing I do suspect is nothing is what it seems. I doubt China has 80k cases and 3k deaths relative to the USA numbers. I doubt Russia’s numbers are accurate either but that’s besides the point. There are a lot of factors that can really skew results and that’s before factoring in the overwhelming evidence that suggests we don’t really know the amount of actual cases due to asymptomatic carriers, most likely by an order of magnitude.

I’m really excited to see what the new antibody tests show. I suspect we will know a whole lot more in the next week or two.

CPfan1976 said:

So....what's your explanation for another record of 1,380 new cases on Sunday? Now we're up to 11,602 from 10,222 the day before. Ohio is #15 ranked for the most cases in the USA. The point is....You DON'T base re-opening things back up in 11 days when there is NO "downward" curve in the stats. That's just idiotic thinking and purely pressure coming from places in Washington DC to boost the economy. I've applauded everything Mike DeWine (governor of Ohio) has chosen to do up until this point but man can't wait to hear the press conference on Monday explaining this "New York" type of thinking.

I've been tracking the reported Ohio numbers daily, and keeping track of the deltas, because all things being equal, that's where the real story lies. Since April 4, the new case delta has been flat or even dropping slightly. The important numbers, the hospitalization and ICU admission rates have been trending downward and flat, resepctively. Then on Wednesday, the new case rate started reversing and skyrocketed over the weekend. We had been pretty stable at about 340 new cases per day. Wednesday went up to 475, 611 on Thursday, 619 on Friday, 1081 on Saturday and 1353 on Sunday. That's a total of 4,139 new cases in the last five days where I would have expected 1,700...a total of 2,439 "extra" cases not accounted for. I've been trying to figure out if there has been a change in test result intervals causing compression in the data. It was obvious that something was skewing the data, and apparent that Ohio's leadership team knew what was happening because I didn't hear any new concern from the Governor about this sudden spike in new cases.

It turns out that the difference is that all along we've been testing only the sickest people, the ones most likely to have the virus (and still only seeing about a 12% positive rate). Abruptly, the State decided to test *everyone* in the State prisons. At Marion Correctional alone they got 1,828 inmates with positive tests with 38 of those requiring hospital care. In all of the Ohio prisons *including Marion* they found...I swear I am not making this up even though this sounds like math book numbers...2,426 inmates who tested positive.

That means the total number of positive results over the last four days in excess of the average for the preceding 10 days is...14. That's much less than the daily variation over the preceding 10 day period. It represents a daily variation of less than four cases per day. It's also worth noting that had the prisons been tested in the way that the rest of the population has been tested, Marion would have added probably around 40 cases, not 1,800. That's not to say that the virus prevalence in the total population has also been undercounted by 4500%, as the communal living environment in the prison has probably caused a lot more spread within the community than we experience outside, but it does suggest what a worst case scenario might look like: in the prison the virus has infected 73% of the population and 2% of those infected require hospital care.

Unless there is still some prison data that hasn't been reported yet, I expect tomorrow we'll be at or below that 340-new-case daily average. I would really like to see if we're really down to 300/day as my corrected numbers (below) suggest.

EDIT: I read the Columbus Dispatch article a little more closely and realized that those numbers (2,426 cases) only represent inmates who tested positive for the virus. Staff were also tested, and 219 corrections staff who also tested positive. Assuming that those 219 would not normally have been tested (hard to say; one staff member has died, which means that person was probably counted otherwise), that means the correctional system accounts for a total of 2,645 cases over the past five days, which exceeds the overage from the expected total. That means the non-correctional new case number for the five day period could be as low as 1,494 new cases or an average of only 299 new cases per day.

--Dave Althoff, Jr.