Virus Impact on CP

Yeah I've been tracking the numbers daily also. I remember there only being a single case in Ohio from a guy traveling back from Washington DC. He lived on the East side of Cleveland. The point is....I don't care where these Ohio case numbers are coming from. The fact is the numbers are trending upward suddenly. It doesn't matter if the new cases are coming from prisoners, Walmart stores, parks, or whomever... EACH new case person has the potential to infect a ton of OTHER people that are in proximity of it. And think, all of this is happening with most everything being "shut down". What's going to happen when things start gradually opening back up too quickly? The numbers sure as hell won't be traveling downward. How about waiting a few days until there are NO new cases reported? Doesn't THAT seem to make the most sense for re-opening?

^ Ha! A few days?
It will be months if not years before we see zero new cases.

But remember:
No one is forcing you to come out on May 1st
You are free to stay in as long as you like.

If testing has been ramped up, it's obvious the numbers will go up. Unless we have enough tests to be able to test the entire population, we'll never know the true numbers.

CPfan1976 said:

So....what's your explanation for another record of 1,380 new cases on Sunday? Now we're up to 11,602 from 10,222 the day before.

I told you already... They are doing far more testing in prisons. So of course, you will see an increase. If you test more, guess what, you get more results! Especially when you test in a 'hot spot' in which the entire damn prison has it.

"Marion County’s new cases appear to be tied to the presence of a state prison where a majority of inmates incarcerated there now have tested positive for COVID-19.

"Of the nearly 2,500 inmates at the Marion Correctional Center, 1,828 — or 75% — now have tested positive for coronavirus, as have another 109 staff members, according to data released Sunday afternoon by the Ohio Department of Corrections. That compares to 1,057 inmates and 103 staff members the day before."

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/04/marion-county-not-cuyahoga-c...s-why.html

The CDC also expanded it's definition, which included an extra 300 cases in Ohio. Which now includes not positive or negative, but 'probable' as well.

Again, you can't just look at the raw data and then make assumptions on how the state is doing. You have to interpret the data and also use a bit of common sense.

Realize that most of the testing is being done to those who are at the most risk, already sick, etc... So that is like going to an amusement park during a ride night event and randomly selecting 100 people and counting how many coaster enthusiasts are in that bunch... Compare to randomly driving in downtown Cleveland during the week, grabbing a random 100 people and doing the same. You will find FAR LESS enthusiasts in that bunch. That's exactly what is being done with this testing, so you can't just look at the numbers alone. Sometimes, you have to ignore data sets because they don't paint a realistic look at the information being conveyed.

MaverickLaunch said:

Lotto tickets? Are you freaking kidding me???

Lottery ticket sales account for about 7% of the education budget in a state where the budget must be balanced. So it's more or less necessary to keep selling lottery tickets, unless you know where to find an extra billion dollars.

That's a ridiculous argument, even for you, and that's saying a lot.

If dollars matter more than lives, the whole country should be open as normal.

It's not an argument. It's the reason those sales continue in Michigan and many other states.

The fact of the matter is that Michigan is required, by law, to have a balanced budget. And those ticket sales unfortunately make up a significant portion of the state's education budget.

Where is the Governor and Legislature supposed to find more than a billion dollars to replace that lost revenue? Couch cushions?

Yes, Whitmer's restrictions, while warranted at first, are too blunt and heavy handed for the long term. But she's done a decent job and I would much rater err on the side of caution than not, even if it means some of us can't find vegetable seeds.

Cut costs like everyone else is doing? I have to imagine that the lottery sales are going to experience a significant drop so while the sales will be better than nothing there is still going to be quite a shortfall from the previous budget.

She’s doing a terrible job.

I can assure you the state is losing FAR more revenue from sales tax of prohibited items than they would be if theY disallowed sales of lottery tickets. Your argument holds no water whatsoever, but go ahead and keep your Whitmer apologetics going.

FUN is doing very well today, CF is offering $875M in secured notes.

Secured with what? BTW, Moody's rates those notes at BA2, which puts them below investment grade, if they can float them. Good that the stock is up, but that may because of the defensive posture (such as stopping the dividend) that CF is taking rather than issuing yet more debt.

MaverickLaunch said:

I can assure you the state is losing FAR more revenue from sales tax of prohibited items than they would be if theY disallowed sales of lottery tickets. Your argument holds no water whatsoever, but go ahead and keep your Whitmer apologetics going.

I'm not an apologist. Like I said, she should be more proactive in setting guidelines for businesses to operate in, creating an environment where the state government isn't telling us what we can do, but instead telling us how we should be doing things. Such as, Lowes should be able to sell whatever they want, so long as they do so in a safe way. But she deserves credit for acting somewhat swiftly, certainly relative to the response (or complete lack thereof) at the federal level.

And this is coming from someone who didn't want to vote for her. But she was running against Schuette, who has made a carreer out of crapping on people's rights and his suppression of the will of voters. See his track record on medical marijuana, his attempts to strike down ballot initiatives, etc. The guy is a scumbag, so Whitmer "won" my vote by default, unfortunately.

But you're right, the state is losing far more revenue from sales tax on prohibited items, something that should be corrected to some degree, so long as it doesn't come at a greater long term cost. It's a tricky balance. But that the state is losing "far more" revenue on some prohibited items is not a logical justification for prohibiting other items, such as lottery tickets.

All of the argument about numbers seems pretty pointless when you consider that people getting back into the world without a mitigation strategy will cause them to go back up. That's not even a question. It's fine to cling to the hope that we're not killing the healthcare system (in most places), and saving lives, but we still don't really know what to do next to avoid going back in that direction.

The key is much higher testing (and the Federal government HAS to be involved in that no matter what the President says) and the ability to contact trace everyone who tests positive (also requiring a significant lift by the Federal government).

The President did local folks NO favors in talking out of both sides of his mouth this past weekend. He puts out guidelines for a phased reopening (and pretty good, comprehensive guidelines I might add) and then goes out and stirs up the "big thinkers" of the world by pushing for "Liberation" of states. (Well, liberation of Democrat-led states to be specific).

I have had calls today asking me to reopen parks, golf courses, etc...and our numbers are still increasing. We don't expect to hit our peak for 2-3 weeks and yet, due to the President's mixed messaging, he's got people stirred up with false hope, only further infuriating them. Thanks big guy.

Jeff and Chief, my points exactly. Nothing should be re-opened ANYWHERE with numbers on the rise. Period. Let me guess: 1000+ new cases 3 days in a row were ALL prisoners? WRONG. Another 1300 new cases yet again today. And how many people are YET to be tested? This isn't going down anytime soon. We're still on the left side of the curve and we're talking about RE-OPENING things already? Something is seriously wrong with that picture and defies logic.

Backassward thinking in parts of this country (and some bad decision making from those being made to stay home AND those in charge) is keeping this virus going. Go around the Avon,OH (rt.83) area sometime. Explain to me why 3 home improvement stores within walking distance of each other (Menards, Home Depot and Lowes ALL have to be open at the same time and look packed to the gills on any given day? Heinen's included. Also when somebody can give me a good argument on how Cabelas, Starbucks, and TruGreen are ALL deemed "essential" to stay open, I'm all ears to listen. People would survive temporarily without any of them. These are just a few examples.

A PLEA from my friends that work at some of the above stores: Parents that continue to drag their whole brood & gaggle of kids (without any of them having masks) to get your 12 pack of Mountain Dew at Walmart, or your flowers from the home improvement stores.....you're doing your family and the community a disservice. WAKE THE HELL UP. THIS VIRUS IS KILLING PEOPLE! Stay home. Your lungs & surviving family members will thank you later. My 2c.

I believe I heard that the suden spike in numbers was due to a backlog of test results and that as of today that backlog is cleared. I was out doing my food delivery gig work at the time so I was listening on the radio and there were technical difficulties so I missed parts of it. And it sounded to me like most of the restarts are going to be in the medical field, such as elective surgeries. So it's not going to be much of a change to the public eye at first. It's just to get some people back to work.

Ohio schools and spring sports cancelled the rest of the spring now. Local festivals, events, and concerts that were scheduled out months into the summer and fall have all been cancelled in the past 24 hours.

And yet, an ignorant idiot claiming to be a newly hired worker at Cedar Point argues with me on Facebook about the fact that he knows for a fact the park is opening at the end of May and it only takes 2-3 weeks to get it all ready. He also called me a liar for stating that some construction projects were halted. After I responded with the recent CF financials update about capital ex spending cuts and labor cuts, he proceeds to tell me I’m behind the ball with old news.

So yeah, ignorance is rampant now more than ever and the increasing amount of people who believe we should just go back to normal in two weeks is staggering.

While my career field is not infectious diseases or anything related to the medical field, couldn't the increase in positive cases be a result of many factors? Increased testing, clearing of the backlog, and maybe the fact that the criteria for someone being diagnosed as Covid-19 positive has changed? You cannot change the criteria for your data set mid-stream and then say you are comparing apples to apples. What would the numbers have been earlier on had the revised criteria for being Covid-19 positive been in place back then?

With all of that said, Jeff hit the nail on the head as succinctly as anyone could have said it. All the back and forth about numbers is fruitless without a mitigation plan that can be realistically implemented in place.

While I think we all hope there isn't a 2nd or 3rd wave, it will be interesting to see how our elected officials handle it if/when that happens. If we have to shut down again, will most of America buy in like this time around? Or will you get more folks just saying 'screw it,' I'm doing my own thing out of self-preservation? Nobody has that answer obviously, but it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

As this drags on, yes, you are going to see folks just saying "screw it". It's already happening. It's the American way. And unless it's done in a much more serious manner than it was this time, any subsequent shutdowns will not even get the amount of attention or response this one did.

Deaths per capita are constant and not affected by the amount of testing. That should concern you. Ohio's daily fatality count is trending up, not down, and assuming that it's a latent indicator of actual case count that's really bad news.