Virus Impact on CP

Jeff said:

The consensus among expert economists is that the opposite is true.

Your April 15th post on your very own blog is exactly what I'm talking about though. And it's not just the economic impact. It's mental health... depression, substance abuse, suicide, child molestation God forbid, and other unspeakable really bad things.

There has to be a happier medium than what we are currently going through. I don't know what that looks like, but it certainly is not ideas like disallowing golf or planting gardens. (restrictions recently lifted in my state but an example of government overreach in the first place).

Very sorry to hear of your suffering Cp4. My mother had it about a month ago. She had one horrific week (couldn’t get a test) and was told to ride it out at home. She was sorry she did. When is better now though cannot kick a persistent cough. I hop it passes soon for you.

^Also in the same blog post you mention the failure of the government response. Interesting all the praise the administration has gotten from people who, by all accounts, really hate the sitting president. Gavin Newsom in CA, Cuomo in NY, and oh dear heavens, even Omar has praised the President's response.

I will repeat, because I know dj is sitting in his basement somewhere waiting for me to contradict myself... I disagree with the way the administration handled the response to this crisis early. They were not alone. The WHO and the democrats didn't take it seriously either. If they had they wouldn't have been chasing the impeachment debacle and Pelosi wouldn't have been advocating for a big party in China town.

Plenty of blame to go around, no question. But I think other than some recent comments by the President, he's done an outstanding job after taking this very, very seriously.

Jeff said:

kjettski said:
It's a survey.....

Of ivy league economists, not PointBuzz members.

A survey nonetheless, and has but anecdotal value.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-26/coronavirus-l...t-scrutiny

There's a link in the article that's from the University of Wyoming.

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1JcU_5qfeHRQbljNNQ4CR4XeSKkv67eG3

While it's useful and similar to other white papers I've seen, I am troubled by a couple of the assumptions. The Value of Statistical Life (VSL) is too high (10 million dollars) as the average tort case award per life is around 1.5 million dollars. The disparity is troubling. The assumed rate of economic growth is 2% while the US historical average is around 3%. These are huge differences, large enough to almost invalidate the white paper.

Obviously the government has to err on the side of caution. Trump says one thing and actually does another (Victor Davis Hanson ). The government has done the right thing in enacting the lockdown along with the economic stimulus.

IMO subsequent analysis will conclude that the USA overreacted. But that's 5 to 10 years away..

A consensus opinion by top economists is not an anecdote. They're literally the smartest people in the room on the subject.

MaverickLaunch said:It's mental health... depression, substance abuse, suicide, child molestation God forbid, and other unspeakable really bad things.

This quarantine may exacerbate some problems of a society, but it doesn't turn people into substance abusers or child molesters.

...disallowing golf or planting gardens. (restrictions recently lifted in my state but an example of government overreach in the first place).

Also, why do you keep insisting that you couldn't plant a garden. I thought you said you stick to the facts? You've continued to spread this misinformation over and over again.

VWHoward said:

This quarantine may exacerbate some problems of a society, but it doesn't turn people into substance abusers or child molesters.

I don’t know man... I’m not one with a drinking problem or subject to depression but I’ve had a lot of both over the last month. This whole situation is bringing out the worst in people. Some good too, but a LOT of bad.

Also, why do you keep insisting that you couldn't plant a garden. I thought you said you stick to the facts? You've continued to spread this misinformation over and over again.

Ugh. I’ve said it before but I’ll repeat. I usually buy seeds from the local hardware stores or nurseries. Nurseries were closed. EVERY hardware store in my area was sold out. Except Lowe’s and Home Depot where sales were not allowed. Amazon was showing 3-4 weeks till delivery because it was non essential.

So yeah, I could not buy seeds. I suppose I could have started calling hardware stores 60 minutes away or just driven to Ohio but seriously?

Jeff said:

A consensus opinion by top economists is not an anecdote. They're literally the smartest people in the room on the subject.

It's a survey. Its value is purely anecdotal.

Even the white paper I cited is a guess as the variance is in the extreme. An educated guess is still just a guess.....

Governments will always err on the side of caution. In my opinion, it's to the detriment.

When proper data is present more informed decisions can be made.

kjettski said:
The assumed rate of economic growth is 2% while the US historical average is around 3%. These are huge differences, large enough to almost invalidate the white paper.

I'm not necessarily disputing this, but where are you getting that historical average? My understanding is that real GDP growth historically has been closer to 2% than 3%. And while I didn't do a ton of digging, what I did find seems to bear that out, at least on average.

Mavlaunch, you not being able to find seeds and the government not allowing you to plant a garden are two totally different things. Say what you mean instead of misleading comments. And not sure why you would have to drive to Ohio for seeds. I've found plenty in Michigan. Like, so many. Our local library will mail them to you for free if you ask.

I also get that you may have a bit more time to drink than normal, but that's also your choice. If you start thinking molestation is a good idea, time to get some help.

Yeah, we ordered some vegetable and herb seeds from Amazon mid-March, because even though the lead time was significant, they'd still arrive in plenty of time to sow indoors.

Then when the order appeared stuck in limbo without any updates in early April, I headed to my SE MI metro ACE Hardware, and got plenty of basic stuff, the exception being tomatoes. Then, a few days later our Amazon seeds arrived.

Of course we may not have any protein to have with those veggies, but still.

vwhoward said:

And not sure why you would have to drive to Ohio for seeds.

Because the sale of seeds was always legal in Ohio. I visited two stores and called the rest within 30 mins of my house and the only thing I could find were things not needed to be started early indoors.

Admittedly, I had no idea the library offered seeds. They offer various media, why would I even have had reason to consider that?

If you start thinking molestation is a good idea, time to get some help.

This is inappropriate and offensive. And coming from a guy who last week questioned MY moral character. Wow. But I did read this in an article, which was expressing the effects of alcohol on people susceptible to this behavior. No, the virus didn’t plant the seed, but it did dump gasoline on the conditions under which people could make those bad choices if they were already inclined. That concerned me greatly because that behavior is just the most reprehensible thing a human being could do. Ever.

djDaemon said:

kjettski said:
The assumed rate of economic growth is 2% while the US historical average is around 3%. These are huge differences, large enough to almost invalidate the white paper.

I'm not necessarily disputing this, but where are you getting that historical average? My understanding is that real GDP growth historically has been closer to 2% than 3%. And while I didn't do a ton of digging, what I did find seems to bear that out, at least on average.

Actually it's 3.2 % , rounding up of course.

3.18 percent

GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.18 percent from 1947 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

United States GDP Growth Rate | 1947-2020 Data | 2021 ...
tradingeconomics.com › United States

djDaemon said:

Yeah, we ordered some vegetable and herb seeds from Amazon mid-March...

I did not think of it till late March. And by then the stores were sold out. The overreach of a terrible governor made sure that I couldn’t go to Lowe’s and get what I needed, even though they had plenty in stock.

Çp4€và04 said:

Again an absolute nightmare. I have another 5 days maybe more, I dunno because whats the incubation period then infection. It's a roll of the dice for what you gotta suffer though.

CP4, prayers for a quick recovery for you. I hope at some point you are able to be tested. Not sure where you live but in my county the health department has drive up testing with no preconditions to get tested.

MaverickLaunch said:

Because the sale of seeds was always legal in Ohio.

Again, tell the truth. Not misinformation. You're insinuating it was illegal to sell seeds in Michigan. It was always legal here as well.

Maybe I stepped over the line with the molestation comment. I apologize for that. But I am unsure why you brought it up to begin with. If all it takes is capitalism to stop someone with a predisposition to terrible behavior, our society is in a bad spot.

I've had good luck with Amazon delivering non-essential items within the normal delivery times and in some cases even faster. I ordered some foam core (non-essential) and it showed up less than 24 hours later. Maybe this isn't the case everywhere but Amazon orders in Orlando have been normal for me.

vwhoward said:
It was always legal here as well.

If I implied it was illegal in Michigan, I only meant that in the context of buying from sellers who were legally able to sell. I was not trying to spread misinformation. Perhaps I should have said the idiot governor made it illegal to buy seeds from those who actually had them in inventory. Not to sound snarky, but that’s what the end result was, for me. Any way you look at it, it was a gross overreach. Disallow large box retailers to sell seeds so that people need to go to the grocery store MORE often this summer. Dumb.

Maybe I stepped over the line with the molestation comment. I apologize for that. But I am unsure why you brought it up to begin with. If all it takes is capitalism to stop someone with a predisposition to terrible behavior, our society is in a bad spot.

I only brought it up because I read an article about the increases in child molestation during the quarantine, specifically related to adult males committing this heinous act while under the influence of alcohol well beyond their “normal” day to day consumption. Certainly the roots of such a devastating act of cruelty did not originate with the virus. My point was that the negative behavioral outcomes resulting from quarantine need to be carefully considered and weighed against the amount of illness we allow to spread. It’s a delicate balance.

If the local hardware stores sold out fast and never restocked I have a feeling places like Lowe's and Home Depot likely would have sold out and had been in the same situation anyway. I dunno if you fall into this category Maverick Launch but my Michigan friends on Facebook who always push to buy local and support mom & pop shops have been very vocal about how they can't shop at Lowe's and it makes me laugh. Like do you want to support local or corporate?

MaverickLaunch said:

The overreach of a terrible governor...

I live under the dystopian rule of the same Governor, yet still managed to acquire a ton of seeds, along with many others. So maybe the blame for you not acquiring the same is at least partially misplaced.