Virus Impact on CP

Anyone who may know would likely not be sharing that information here for various reasons. That said, I would suspect that people in charge of such decisions have spent countless hours and sleepless nights creating a number of different scenarios. I think it's fair to say that anyone working in those positions has, like us in our own lives, never faced something like this, nor was there a contingency plan for this specific scenario. Just take a look at this thread from its inception to now; what we have all learned and experienced is so drastically different.

If you have the time, I would suggest grabbing some wine with Dewine tomorrow (2ish) if you can. We will likely get our first talking points about potential steps towards re-opening anything. It will likely all by hypothetical and "if x happens, than y may be able to follow..." talk, but it might be interesting to hear.

SPOILER....RANT ALERT ( my first since about 10+ years ago when the Chickie's & Pete's bathrooms were closed and it took writing on here & common sense for them to be reopened)....

Why Cedar Point ( my home away from home for the last 44 years) will be reopened LATER than sooner....this just from my Easter holiday observations). Please read slowly and apply to yourself and people that you know. If you're guilty of this behavior...there's still time for you to change your selfish A**hole ways.

The sad part is alot of people AREN'T modifying their behavior including hand washing, traveling for "non-essential" things,etc. Some observations during this covid crisis:

The Federal government is currently inept on alot of levels including the usps.com website trying to track down any packages with a tracking # (technical difficulties), or even trying to go onto the irs.gov website and figuring out where in the hell your federal income tax refund is that was done almost 2 months ago. Unreal. Good luck getting through on a phone call to talk to a human that can help you during this time.

**Just on Easter day alone, when walking around my block where I live, I was stunned by observing lots of driveways with 4-5 cars packed in them (when people can't even sacrifice one holiday) for the common good of man, to slow down the spread of this virus currently. Yeah, just because YOU'RE not feeling any symptoms DOESN'T mean that you're not a carrier and infecting others. Stay the hell home please. Are you capable of sitting still for a few weeks for the good of others? Think about that long and hard.

Having family members travel to your house on Easter....all of this while little children/elderly are present, that are the most at risk of being affected just isn't cool anymore. Posting your gathering later on social media will subject you to even more scrutiny. Yes, I've observed these things. I go to my job when I have to and just stay home. That's it. When I'm still out traveling to my deemed "essential" banking job six days a week, on a daily basis.... the amount of "mostly boomer generation" people still traveling to get their daily fix at Starbucks , going to the Post office for one stamp, going to Walmart (who's letting in more than 200 people at any given time...go past one on a Saturday afternoon), wherever....because the rules "don't apply to them" makes me realize why it will be LATER rather than sooner that any of this virus spreading will go away any time soon. (check New Yorks daily covid #s for some real eye opening) CP's delayed opening for this 2020 calendar year will be affected by people not changing their behavior. Plain and simple. There is TOO MUCH much selfish behavior in this country currently and it's just sad. Do some soul searching. Does this apply to YOU? My 2c. I will now go back to finishing my bitter flakes that I had for breakfast. Out.

Last weekend, Walmart, Giant Eagle, etc were packed to the brim. Even with the 5 people per 1000 sq ft regulation, that still allows upwards of 1000 people in bigger stores. That changed nothing. I never even see that many people in the store at once. Home Depot is limiting to just 100. A much better number. People just need to stop going to Walmart, Target, etc because they are bored and that's all there is to do. Just get what you need and GTFO. And you don't need to drag your whole group in there. They should just allow a max of 2 people per group. I know some places do that already.

There's another wave of infection coming. I can guarantee it.

If this is any indication, even somewhat controlled lift of restrictions will have consequences.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/832981899/emergency-declared-in-japanese-prefecture-hit-by-2nd-wave-of-coronavirus-infecti

And another wave, and another, and another.

The link that was provided earlier in this thread indicated that Ohio was projecting the peak to be the week of April 19, and it will be 2,000 cases per day. It then decreases.

To me the question is not whether there will be another wave, but rather how much of a new wave is acceptable? Does Ohio say the same 2,000 case level is acceptable or is it a smaller number before we pump the brakes again? Or maybe the current flatness is too shallow as I do not see that the hospitals in Ohio are putting patients in the hallways. If the healthcare system can handle it do we need to allow for a higher number of cases?

We're so far below projections, one of the hospitals in my local area has furloughed about 400 employees. It's great that we're that far below cases but not good for those furloughed workers. Maybe elective surgeries will be one of the first things restored.

I'm reading about everything on this that I can right now. A think tank of doctors in DC who are with the American Enterprise Institute released "A Road Map to Reopening" on March 28th. It shows a 4 Phase approach to this pandemic. Phase I is what we are in now: social distancing. Phase II is getting back to work in some form: Reopen, State by State. Phase III is returning to "normal": lifting all restrictions. Phase IV getting ready for the next Pandemic.

It is a 15 page report and I don't want to oversimplify it, but I had a key takeaway that I think we will be looking at as a community, and I expect the tourism industry will be doing likewise.

Phase III, the lifting of all restrictions phase, is recommended to occur once a vaccine has been approved and is widely in use. Keep in mind that most experts are saying a vaccine should not be expected for 12-18 months. That means we are in Phase II for some time. Phase II recommends the reopening of the majority of schools, universities and businesses but also encourages teleworking to continue when convenient. Phase II also recommends limiting social gatherings to fewer than 50 people.

That last part is eye opening. If we are going to be looking at limiting social gatherings to fewer than 50 people, from then end of our current social distancing until a vaccine is approved, that will have long lasting implications. Whether that is government mandated or not, I think the confidence of the American people to return to "normal" is going to rely more on the vaccine and less on what political leaders say that want to see happen.

Jeff said:

There's another wave of infection coming. I can guarantee it.

I have said the same thing. We aren't in the clear yet.

Chief, in addition to that report vox summarizes and links to 3 others, all different but have similarities. The privacy rights crowd, which I agree with to an extent, is not going to like what it takes for contact tracing. It is a tough pill to swallow, but so is death.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-dis...employment

Everyone should take a look and even read some of the competing plans as they will certainly extensively debated shortly.

Chief Wahoo said:

I'm reading about everything on this that I can right now. A think tank of doctors in DC who are with the American Enterprise Institute released "A Road Map to Reopening" on March 28th. It shows a 4 Phase approach to this pandemic. Phase I is what we are in now: social distancing. Phase II is getting back to work in some form: Reopen, State by State. Phase III is returning to "normal": lifting all restrictions. Phase IV getting ready for the next Pandemic.

It is a 15 page report and I don't want to oversimplify it, but I had a key takeaway that I think we will be looking at as a community, and I expect the tourism industry will be doing likewise.

Phase III, the lifting of all restrictions phase, is recommended to occur once a vaccine has been approved and is widely in use. Keep in mind that most experts are saying a vaccine should not be expected for 12-18 months. That means we are in Phase II for some time. Phase II recommends the reopening of the majority of schools, universities and businesses but also encourages teleworking to continue when convenient. Phase II also recommends limiting social gatherings to fewer than 50 people.

That last part is eye opening. If we are going to be looking at limiting social gatherings to fewer than 50 people, from then end of our current social distancing until a vaccine is approved, that will have long lasting implications. Whether that is government mandated or not, I think the confidence of the American people to return to "normal" is going to rely more on the vaccine and less on what political leaders say that want to see happen.

I posted a link to it a few days ago.

I would have guessed Football was above WWE in FL but apparently not.

https://www.espn.com/wwe/story/_/id/29031903/wwe-deemed-essential-b...mayor-says

Wrestling is huge business in Central Florida and honestly out of all the sports you could produce this makes the most sense to continue. It doesn't take much production crew/staff to accomplish one of these shows in the venue they use. A few of my friends work on these shows for the WWE so I am sure they will be glad to go back to work.

See I would have gone with the Hide and Seek Olympics

I still don't see a world where theme parks from Disney all the way to Knoebels and everyone in between are willing and able to be closed for the entire calendar year 2020 and potentially even miss out on some or all of a 2021 season. Maybe I'm wrong, but at some point in the coming months these businesses are going to need to open, albeit in some kind of modified operating form. Disney is apparently confident that they will be able to at least begin the rolling reopening of some of their parks and resorts this summer, and I just can't imagine others in the industry won't follow suit.

“When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total.”

Not so sure the parks have much say in the matter now.

I'm telling you... there's no way the parks can reopen without at the very least a treatment that is mostly successful. The vaccine is a year off, and even then it has to be distributed all over the world. And on top of that, travel will have to restrictive for some time while we build out herd immunity. The drug trial using the Ebola IV treatment is showing a lot of promise, but that's at best two months if it proves effective, and then more months before it can be manufactured at scale.

Here's the interesting thing reported by the NYT today: Unemployment and economic slow down is not that different in places with low infection rates compared to high infection rates. There is a change in behavior that won't change without some assurance that being exposed to this won't kill you. The reaction isn't unreasonable: This has killed more people in the New York area alone in the last three days than the flu does nationwide in a whole year. Let that soak in.

Jeff said:

This has killed more people in the New York area alone in the last three days than the flu does nationwide in a whole year. Let that soak in.

You say that is from the NYT and maybe I am missing something, but without even looking it up I know those numbers are very wrong, by an order of magnitude.

A vaccine isn't a cure, it prevents the virus from being a threat to those who've never been exposed.

The majority of us will be expose by the time a vaccine comes out and just developing an effective treatment is probably the best way to combat the situtation.

While it is my belief that it was appropriate shutdown the country to buy time to develop a few treatments and reduce strain on healthcare to a virus we have no clue about this is getting ridiculous.

We currently have a lot of data that we can now analyze, we will have more effective treatments and tests in coming weeks. But this shutdown is to effect everyone's life negatively with unnecessary stress. It is in everyone's best interest to resume life with precautions as needed, for what we have in place (Mandated social and economic shutdown) is unsustainable.

Testing and effective treatments are what's needed in the short term. That was the main reason for all the shutdowns and to avoid straining the hospitals. If more testing is available, we can isolate those who are affected. I hear just about every day on the daily Ohio news conference that new instant tests are being developed. Lag time is the big issue with current tests.