Virus Impact on CP

Cargo Shorts said:

MaverickLaunch, I have a total softball question for you.

What do you say to the Americans that a scared, nearly 200 dead, 14k who are sick, millions as you can see who are scared right now, what do you say to the Americans that are reading right now that are scared?

Do you have a wife? A child? Looking for hope, some comfort, what do you say to them?

...but her emails

I don't know why this must remain political for some of you. Well, actually I do.

I would tell my wife and children, or anyone else, to be responsible, limit social contact as much as possible, and RELAX. If everyone does their part, things will be much better in a few weeks.

At my house we have 6 days of isolation left, we are 8 days in. I already feel much better know that, most likely, nobody in my household has it. We have food that will last us a couple months if necessary, and no need to leave the house.

Yes, it sucks. But at least we are healthy. So there is no fear in my family.

Thabto said:

Their stock has plummeted. I'm sure they'll be able to recover. We just don't know how the economic aftermath of all this will be. Hopefully it's just a short loss and everything will be able to bounce back.

Even when they do open back up, will there still be fear and people afraid to go to crowded places? It'll be great for those who like short lines. But I can also see people wanting to get back out after everything being shut down a while, therefore super crowded. So it could go either way.

I have seen estimates from a couple of big banks 10-20% negative GDP growth in the next couple of quarters.

MaverickLaunch said:
At my house we have 6 days of isolation left, we are 8 days in.

But you don't. As soon as you go out into the world, your clock resets, because we have inadequate testing and no contact tracing.

This is, by the way, why I hate EBITDA as a measurement of company health, because not considering the "ITDA" is leaving out pretty important context.

There is no one measurement of a company's health that gives a complete picture. Doesn't mean that any of the various measurements (including EBITDA) aren't relevant/useful. And EBITDA is often part of measurements of leverage and fixed charge coverage.

Cedar Fair earns about 30% of its net revenues in the second quarter and about 48% of its net revenues in the third quarter (each based on 2019 numbers). Right now a large part of the second quarter is in serious doubt. And its not clear what revenues will be in the third quarter. No question they likely are looking at a material decrease in revenues for 2020.

Interest expense was about $100 million in 2019. Not likely to decrease substantially in 2020. Taxes were about $42 million in 2019. At least a portion of those were income taxes which with a significant drop in taxable income will reduce taxes likely by a substantial amount as well. Depreciation and amortization don't have to be funded in the short run (with capital improvements replacing/upgrading/new projects). Have to pay full time employees, insurance and some other overhead that is fixed even of not operating.

To cover those items, they have cash on the balance sheet (about $180 million at the end of 2019 though presumably some of that has been used to get the parks ready for the season). They also have a revolving credit facility. About $275 million I believe with max use in 2019 (during April and May getting parks ready for new season) at $150 million.

In the last couple of weeks, an increasing number of companies have drawn the full amount available under revolving credit facilities. Typically can't borrow under those facilities if you are in default. With the shutdowns/closures that have no clear end in sight, a lot of companies have liquidity concerns (even ones that were totally healthy with no business concerns a few weeks ago) and concerns that defaults under credit facilities are likely. Draw now while you can. Companies are also looking to increase lines of credit to help provide liquidity in the face of uncertainty.

MaverickLaunch, Glad to hear you wouldn’t berate them for asking nasty questions and tell them they were a bad wife and kids. There may be hope for you yet.

Jeff said:

MaverickLaunch said:
At my house we have 6 days of isolation left, we are 8 days in.

But you don't. As soon as you go out into the world, your clock resets, because we have inadequate testing and no contact tracing.

We also do not know for sure the incubation period is 14 days. That seems the most likely number but some indications are it can be as long as 21-30 days. Those may be edge cases but there is more we don’t know than we do know.

According to the WHO, it's most commonly around 5 days.https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

MaverickLaunch said:

At my house we have 6 days of isolation left, we are 8 days in. I already feel much better know that, most likely, nobody in my household has it. We have food that will last us a couple months if necessary, and no need to leave the house.

Yes, it sucks. But at least we are healthy. So there is no fear in my family.

Yes it's good you're all healthy but that mindset is a big part of the problem. There are no set amount of days left in isolation. As a population we all need to be in isolation indefinitely. I work in construction and my wife in manufacturing and unfortunately we're both business as usual. Until Ontario (where I live) and the rest of Canada (and US) orders a lockdown we aren't going to flatten the curve.

Is this the worst thread in the history of this website? Could be!

PyroKinesis09 said:

Is this the worst thread in the history of this website? Could be!

I’m on a couple different forums on widely different subjects. They’ve all turned into pissing contests. I’m WAY over it.

PyroKinesis09 said:

Is this the worst thread in the history of this website? Could be!

Drone Morality or anything by John Pratt.

IMO The members of this forum have done a great job limiting the “pissing match” to this thread. Go visit some other threads if you want to talk about something else. Make some posts.

PyroKinesis09 said:

Is this the worst thread in the history of this website? Could be!

No. But it could be the worst post on the thread.

If this is the "Worst thread" and John you are "So over it" why are you here? Some of us including Mav Launch have spent actual time formulating posts that express our views. Why not back Mav up or educate me on how the point's/facts I've laid out in multiple posts are false? That might take time and effort. It's much easier to chime in that you are "Above" it and "Done with it". Thanks for the mind-blowing observation.

Go back to the 99.9% of this website and spare us the infinite wisdom that you think what's being discussed here is pointless. As is customary have the safest week possible and hang in there all of you, even the ones I disagree with. Cheers!

“Romney's in isolation? Gee, that's too bad”

Thinking about the direct impact on CP (or any theme/amusement park) in the wake of this pandemic. I'm not sure there's a safe way to re-open and also maintain efficient operations any time soon. I had to run to the pharmacy today, and they were encouraging customers to maintain a 6 ft distance from one another, and were wiping down the counter in between each purchase. Think about the logistics of trying to do any version of that with queues and overhead restraints.

Jeff said:

MaverickLaunch said:
At my house we have 6 days of isolation left, we are 8 days in.

But you don't. As soon as you go out into the world, your clock resets, because we have inadequate testing and no contact tracing.

False.

I have no intention of going out into the world. I am aware of the math of this. At some point I will need groceries and I will don my dual chamber P100 respirator and eye protection, and go get what I need. No exposure. And all groceries will be disinfected prior to entering the house.

Laugh if you want... but we will be some of the last on the planet to get this thing if we ever do.

Vince982 said:

Yes it's good you're all healthy but that mindset is a big part of the problem. There are no set amount of days left in isolation. As a population we all need to be in isolation indefinitely. I work in construction and my wife in manufacturing and unfortunately we're both business as usual. Until Ontario (where I live) and the rest of Canada (and US) orders a lockdown we aren't going to flatten the curve.

We are in isolation indefinitely. I was only referring to the 14 days to say that, if we don't have it by then, we are most likely fine.

I won't be going out in public until absolutely necessary and even then, will be in serious protective gear. I'm not worried about ME catching it... I just don't want anyone in my extended family to get it.

Barring some drastic change of events, I think the picture is becoming clear the question at hand is not when the park will open this season but if it will be able to open for the 2021 season.

I’m not sure if refund policy has been discussed in this long thread but I have a 2 night Breakers concierge floor package with tickets for 6 booked and being paid monthly. I have two payments left and CP is still taking installments from my credit card as of an email today. I’m assuming I would get full refund if they don’t open by my dates in June correct?

We don’t know when the park will open and that’s sad. My time at CP has proven very meaningful to me even now 40+ years later so I’m interested in what’s happening. The stuff that annoys me the most is the political blame game and name calling on all sides. I’d rather just look forward. I now live on a small island that relies on the summer tourist business. I see the parallels between CP and life here in normal times. We got whacked badly by Hurricane Dorian. My house is still unlivable. Still, my primary concern is for my friends whose livelihoods are at risk from both the storm and now the virus. We don’t know what’s going to happen, but, I choose to stay positive, look ahead and help my friends where I can.