News: SeaWorld Entertainment reportedly making bid for Cedar Fair

You should stop embarrassing yourself with your posts. When did I say the offer had an EV of 3.4B.

So you attributing to me that which I didn't say embarrasses me? Got it.

What is the enterprise value of the SeaWorld offer?

Are you a complete novice to finance & markets?

Cedar Fair units are up over 19% since 1/31/22--day before offer was made public (thru yesterday). S&P 500 (Vanguards S&P 500 EFT in any event) is down 0.6% over that period. To what do you attribute the difference?

Educate yourself on Enterprise Value, you clearly don't understand the term. Btw, try to keep up with the errors in your post & logic, you have clearly thoroughly confused yourself. You looked up some terms & don't know what they mean.

Since the offer was made public, the price has increased to just under $60. Gives some indication the market thinks at least a good possibility.

NOT TRUE, You're a novice

It's called speculation, try looking up the definition of speculation. The rise infers no notion of a "good possibility", as you naively think. This happens all the time in the market, PTON stock went up 50% in a couple of days with no actual offer or price mentioned, just unsourced reports of interest. None of the companies rumored as buyers acknowledging it. It's called speculative rise in the shares & tons of money can be made or loss, it does not infer possibility.

If you don't tuck it back in, I'm going to show you the door. If you can't respectfully disagree, you don't need to be here.

So I should educate myself about something I know well and which has been a regular part of my work life for more than 25 years. M&A transactions (mostly buy side but some sell side as well). Capital raises. Warrants. Convertible debt issuances. I've done an enterprise value calculation on the SeaWorld offer (back of the envelope no doubt as publicly available info is somewhat dated though the board has current info). I just asked (twice) if you had done so. Your answers are telling.

Much of life involves speculation. I didn't wear a coat to work today so I am speculating that my car will start when I leave and not stall out on my way home. Staying with current job speculating that it will be better than other job opportunities that are available. List is pretty much endless really. No guarantees as they say.

In terms of the market, Bernie Sanders views every Wall St trade as speculating. True to a certain degree no doubt. But I think he is really counting on at least a certain group of people buying into the negative views of both Wall St and the word "speculating."

As to Peloton, its true no offer is on the table. But part of the reason for the increase in Peloton stock recently was reported interest from Amazon and/or Nike (some reports also include Apple as an interested party). And then today the company announced its replacing its CEO and implementing a number of cost cutting measures. Some are thinking the idea is to change direction of the company with new leadership, make it more lean/mean and go for a turnaround. Others think its about getting the company ready to be acquired. All speculation no doubt because nothing is certain. But its also not the case of just pure speculation. And had an offer price gone public, the market price increases would likely be limited by that price. Though ultimately Peloton has to deal with the issue that they were the darlings of the pandemic when gyms were closed but much less so now that gyms are open (mostly).

There is uncertainty in the markets right now (that ebbs and flows though). S&P 500 flirted with 10% correction territory this year (but I don't think it got there). Down about 5% for the year at this point. Basically flat for the month so far. Given that, what has happened with Cedar Fair in terms of supporting about a 20% increase in the unit price in February? No change in management. No cost cutting measures. No other positive announcements. Just the SeaWorld offer. Anyone who bought just thinking the stock is a good opportunity could have paid 20% less 2 weeks ago. And the price hasn't been steadily increasing since the announcement. Its settled in just under the $60 offer price at this point. Of course people bought with the idea of a $60 buyout. But you know if the board rejects the offer tomorrow (something which it may well do) the stock price is heading back down presumably to where it was in January. If you think there is absolutely 0% chance that deal happens, you are not buying. Does that mean if you are buying you are certain the deal will happen? No. But you at least think there is a good chance it will.

^GoBucks, you don't have to waste time trying to justify yourself and your position. The dude just wants to argue and try to seem like he knows something everyone else doesn't. We've seen it before. I, for one, appreciate your insight here.

GoBucks89 said:

So I should educate myself about something I know well and which has been a regular part of my work life for more than 25 years. M&A transactions (mostly buy side but some sell side as well).

Nice try, nobody with your so called experience would have made the profound errors you made in several posts & say " the price has increased to just under $60. Gives some indication the market thinks at least a good possibility" THAT'S FALSE, THE RISE DOES NOT INFER THE LEVEL OF POSSIBILITY.

I've done an enterprise value calculation on the SeaWorld offer (back of the envelope no doubt as publicly available info is somewhat dated though the board has current info). I just asked (twice) if you had done so. Your answers are telling.

Still trying to dig out the hole you dug on EV, Keep spinning.

Much of life involves speculation. I didn't wear a coat to work today so I am speculating that my car will start when I leave and not stall out on my way home. Staying with current job speculating that it will be better than other job opportunities that are available. List is pretty much endless really. No guarantees as they say.

Take your meds, Seroquel is your friend. You're blathering thinking your making a point & it's all irrelevant

In terms of the market, Bernie Sanders views every Wall St trade as speculating. True to a certain degree no doubt. But I think he is really counting on at least a certain group of people buying into the negative views of both Wall St and the word "speculating."

Another Seroquel moment, up the dosage.

As to Peloton, its true no offer is on the table.

I know all about PTON, I was short since April 2021 till the middle of January, when it hit the IPO price. I covered.

Does that mean if you are buying you are certain the deal will happen? No. But you at least think there is a good chance it will.

Again, not true & if you actually had the finance experience you claimed, you would know that. You can totally think it's not going thru & buy the stock by taking advantage of momentum. Thus you can buy, play the momentum up, sell calls(premium elevated now) & have a stop to preserve gains when the obvious no happens.

There is also the fact that CF is reporting Feb 16th, the prelim numbers were records thru Oct 31st, so you buy the momentum as stated, bank on a good report(got a 3% move last time), and sell calls like the strategy before or sell out of the position or use the stop like before. These are just 2 of many ways to have bought & not think the deal is happening. It's not b/c it's not in the ball park & SEAS doesn't have the finances to make the offer needed to entice CF.

CED23, just stop dude. You aren't impressing anybody around here. You talk about meds? I think you need to take a chill pill, don't forget to up the dosage.

I wouldn't say he's not impressing anyone. I, for one, am impressed that he still has no idea what an ass he's making of himself.

That won't be a problem anymore.

Guess we will never get to see his calculation of the EV for the SeaWorld offer. LOL

Am I the only one who thought CED23 had been kicked off of here after his last insane rant? Either way glad it’s done finally. Moving along.

CED23 said:

1) In general in theme park industry valuations in actual transactions are EBIDTA multiples...ie...the last really big acquisitions was at a 11.5 EBIDTA of Merlin

I presume you mean "EBITDA."

Long time lurker here. And by no means a market expert. But literally every article I have read is saying this would be a good merger. And that with how the pandemic has gone Cedar Fair board could straight up accept this offer (and analysts wouldn't be surprised) or a small bump in price would be enough to get this to go through. Now I'm not speaking to feasibility of debt consolidation or merging between these companies. But based on the fact they haven't come out yet and said "hell no" like they did in 2 days after the 6F offer. I could genuinely see this merger happening in some capacity.

Can someone explain what this could mean?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-11/centerbridge-is-...cedar-fair

I get that they (Centerbridge) have inserted themselves into the game by becoming influential (5%), but what's the play here? A bidding war, yes...but does this make it seem more likely that they really could sell?

It sounds like they were/are involved with Great Wolf Lodge as well.

EDIT: I see Coasterbuzz was already on top of this, but I'll let the question ride because I'm still curious.

Ok everyone, I think CED23 got a bad rap. The problem is, if you would EDUCATE yourself, and TAKE YOUR MEDS!!! you wouldn't be so stupid as to miss what is going on. I will try to explain it to you all in a way that even a 5 year old could understand.

If you take the EBITDA and multiply it by 1/100th of the average stock price over the last 14.25 quarters, you'll clearly see that a STOCK AND CASH buyout would be far better considering the prime rate of T-Bills. If you factor in the AMORTIZATION it becomes even more clear that in these turbulent financial times, given the supply chain issues coupled with a bearish market and the recent nose dive in crypto, that the only reasonable possibility is FUN is preparing a COUNTER-OFFER to purchase SEAS!

My how the turntables have... turned. I hope this clear things up for you.

FUN buying SEAS would be better for the park enthusiast crowd for sure. Not to mention a boost in business for seat belt factories in Florida, Texas, California and Virginia.

It's apparently a no.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seaworld-says-offer-buy-cedar-003207513.html

Ah, well the Zimmerman era continues…….

You wouldn't want to replace that with a Scott Ross era.

I'd sure love to see a Bob Ross era on the peninsula, though: let's plant some more "Happy little trees!"