Top Thrill Dragster 2022 Status

veritas55:

Cedar Fair's experience is generalized to ALL Intamin rides -- regardless of the actual data.

The "actual data" is that a few of their recent rides haven't been as unreliable as many of their previous rides. That, combined with the abysmal record with Cedar Fair, may be enough to make that so-called "actual data" irrelevant to CF, because it looks more like outliers than a new trend.

As for Zamperla's Wild Mouse, I realize this doesn't even qualify as anecdotal, but some cursory glances at the webcam over recent weeks show it running almost all the time, to the extent that I can't recall seeing it not running anytime I've taken a look. Maverick, by many accounts, has had a typical-but-nontrivial amount of downtime over that same timespan, and Intamin has had 26 years to not figure that out.

You randomly checking the webcam also needs to be checked with all of the people saying that they sent to ride it and it was broken down. I see that all the time on Facebook and sometimes on here.

Jeff the point people are trying to make is that intimin has corrected some of their operational issues.

To me it seems silly that cedar point regrets build ttd because it was an unproven concept and was a huge headache. And now to replace it they are going with an unproven company. Seems like a bad idea to me.

djDaemon:

veritas55:

Cedar Fair's experience is generalized to ALL Intamin rides -- regardless of the actual data.

The "actual data" is that a few of their recent rides haven't been as unreliable as many of their previous rides. That, combined with the abysmal record with Cedar Fair, may be enough to make that so-called "actual data" irrelevant to CF, because it looks more like outliers than a new trend.

As for Zamperla's Wild Mouse, I realize this doesn't even qualify as anecdotal, but some cursory glances at the webcam over recent weeks show it running almost all the time, to the extent that I can't recall seeing it not running anytime I've taken a look. Maverick, by many accounts, has had a typical-but-nontrivial amount of downtime over that same timespan, and Intamin has had 26 years to not figure that out.

There are two separate issues that routinely get conflated.

(1) CF's experiences with Intamin's reliability on rollercoasters. CF's work with Intamin has been relatively limited and it has largely (but not exclusively) focused on record-breaking massive coasters and/or coasters with unique designs. So, it should not be entirely unexpected these rides would have significant reliability challenges, especially at the outset. That said, I get why CF may believe Intamin is not a good company to work with going forward given their experiences with the maverick heartline and reliability, TTD, extra supports on wicked twister, and, of course, the dreaded shoot the rapids (not a coaster, but still). That said, Millennium Force was a home run for them, over the course of 23 years has been largely reliable. Maverick is a hit with the customers, and ironed out lots of its problems. But given what others have said about how Intamin's poor customer service with CF, I get why CF has major issues with them.

(2). Intamin's overall reliability with rollercoasters across its entire inventory. It's this part where I diverge from certain people round here. There seems to be a generalization that CF's experience with Intamin rollercoasters is consistent with most of Intamin's coasters across the world. That the "most" or even the "majority" of their coasters have had bad debuts or reliability issues. But this is demonstrably wrong. They have installed over 150 coasters world wide, and in earlier posts I have repeatedly asked those who keep saying "all" or "most" of their coasters are unreliable to actually list how many have had known reliability issues in the context of all their coasters so we can see the actual percentage of Intamin lemons. I never get an actual response that lists (even partially) their recent or historical coasters and documents (even roughly) what percentage actually had problems. It's always the CF coasters, with Intimidator and a handful of others thrown in, and, when the data gets thinner, we invoke "Shoot the thrills is enough!" (and it is enough for CF or perhaps others -- but it's not a data point that supports the "majority" of their rides having problems. You need actual data to support the allegations of "all, "nearly all" "most" "many."

I have shown my math and the data. In earlier posts I have listed a ton of their older and newer coasters with no known (to me) reliability problems (a list that already greatly outnumbers TTD, maverick, wicked twister, intimidator, xcelerator, and,other problem Intamin coasters, and, yes Shoot the thrills!) and invited those to tell us how unreliable they have been. I will do it again:

Hyperion?

Expedition GE Force?

All three Superman ride of steel coasters?

Goliath at Walibi?

Thunder dolphin (Japan)

Coaster through the clouds

Raging Spirits (Tokyo disneysea)

Fahrenheit (Hershey)

Kawasemi (Japan)

the dozen or so of mega lites they have built in europe and asia (like Piraten, Kawasemi, Light speed - ANY of them?)

Cheetah Hunt?

Skyrush?

all the recent blitz coasters like Taron, Soaring with Dragon, etc?

Pantheon?

Toutatis?

Are all of those unreliable as well?

In the past 5 years alone Intamin has installed over 25 coasters across the world - how many have proven greatly unreliable? Hagrids? Name some!

(I know: insert: "shoot the thrills").

I think it's absolutely reasonable for people to be trepidatious about Zamperla taking on this project. I don't think anyone is wrong for thinking that. They have simply never taken on a project of this magnitude before, and to blindly believe it's going to be a success doesn't make much sense. However, neither does condemning it before it's even open.

I'm excited for whatever they decide to do, and I really hope it works out. I'd by lying if I said I wasn't a tad concerned though.

I can let others fill in the others on your list because I don’t feel like taking the time to type them all on my phone, but just 2 of your “examples” of Intamin’s track record have major issues:

Expedition GE Force? - suffered a derailment in 2010 when the axle and wheel assembly on the 4th car broke. Luckily, there were no injuries

All three Superman ride of steel coasters? - all 3 of them have either killed someone, ejected someone, and/or suffered a major collision due to poor design choices

Jeff:

To be clear, Intamin manufactured those rides at Universal, but the designs are by Universal Creative. I know the guy largely responsible for Velocicoaster, and he's essentially an enthusiast in terms of knowing what we'd like.

Fair point. Although the ride elements are mostly Intamin designs (the top hat, the stall, etc.) -- are you saying the Universal Creative determined the actual layout or was it a traditional partnership, where Intamin laid out various plans for the plot of land, and Universal Creative steered it this way or that way ?(I genuinely don't know).

Does that guy agree it has been a very reliable rollercoaster for them?

I think you may be missing the forest for the trees here. Even if we were to grant that Intamin has improved, it wouldn't change the fact that they wouldn't be so much better that Zamperla doing this would result in a worse outcome. Zamperla could screw up the debut pretty badly and so long as they work in good faith to make things right in the end, I imagine that would be a huge improvement over CF's experiences with Intamin, and thus a success as far as they're concerned. Whether or not Velocicoaster is reliable has no bearing on that whatsoever.

That's not even right. A lot of the elements we find common now were first designed by Werner Stengel for a number of different manufacturers. Intamin does very little design themselves. Regarding Velocicoaster, I can't speak to its reliability since it started during the pandemic, but let's assume it was perfect. Cool, that's one in their column, and it doesn't erase the history. They also didn't have to work with Sandor.

Data can show whatever you want when you limit the data set. And that doesn't matter either when taken out of broader context. If you buy a bunch of rides that are unreliable (Xcelerator, Dragster, Millennium Force first year), require modification (Maverick, Wicked Twister), you end up removing (Shoot The Rapids), and worst of all, cause injury and death (Dragster, Xcelerator, Shoot The Rapids, Perilous Plunge), and then on top of that find their primary US rep to be a total dick to work with (all of the rides), I think the outcome of your decision making will be pretty clear.

On the other hand, you could call up Walter and get a ride that's virtually guaranteed to open on time and run reliably, while being high in capacity and a crowd pleaser. Or you could call the Italians that have donated rides to Give Kids The World. Or you could call up the guys that are systematically making some of your older wood coasters more solid than ever. Or the scrappy folks in Idaho to successfully reprofile old rides.

But let's hang on to Intamin, sure. There's so much upside.

e x i t english:

I can let others fill in the others on your list because I don’t feel like taking the time to type them all on my phone, but just 2 of your “examples” of Intamin’s track record have major issues:

Expedition GE Force? - suffered a derailment in 2010 when the axle and wheel assembly on the 4th car broke. Luckily, there were no injuries

All three Superman ride of steel coasters? - all 3 of them have either killed someone, ejected someone, and/or suffered a major collision due to poor design choices

My point was about reliability of Expedition GEForce. It opened in 2001 and did not have significant downtime in its opening or throughout its 21 year history. You point to a derailment 9 years after it opened. I haven't seen anything that puts that on Intamin's train design (trains used on virtually all its mega coasters) versus maintenance issues. For example, a train derailed on Disneyland's Big thunder and killed a passenger. That wasn't the manufacturers fault - it was faulty maintenance on Disneyland/s part.

The Superman coaster ejections -- again -- were not Intamin's fault. The ride operators allowed a man with two amputated legs and another man (sadly disabled) , again, without acceptable body proportions to ride against manufacturer specifications.

Is ANYTHING that EVERY happens on Intamin ride, Intamin's fault now? The TTD flag plate flying off after nearly 20 years of operation (and intervening metallurgy tests and maintenance tests that are on CP's doorstop), that's also now Intamin's fault?

Is there even going to be semi-fair assessment of what lands on the manufacturer's ledger vs. the operators of the ride, especially 10 and 20 years after the manufacturer turns the ride over?

veritas55:

The Superman coaster ejections -- again -- were not Intamin's fault.

Oh my God, in what universe? Are you suggesting the ride operators should be human factors experts? The seat design was completely flawed and there was no "no go" indicator. We litigated this back when it happened. If it happens with their rides, but not the rides of their competitors, is it just bad luck?

I think we may be wildly overblowing Intamin history as a factor. The choice of Zamperla may have been as simple as Intamin bid higher than Zamperla. Or Zamperla was like “Hey we have this innovative new launch based train. We have a new LSM system we want to use. We have a partnership already budding with working together on your new Boardwalk area. We would like to take a shot at Top Thrill. Here is our plan….”

I’m not confident in Zamperla on a project of this size. But who knows maybe they blow this **** out of the water and I (and others) look like assholes for talking smack

Also think this got missed with track and supports arriving yesterday! There is a back hoe digging around the station as of yesterday:

Jeff:

As I said on CB, ignoring Intamin's history takes some serious mental gymnastics.

Say the people who then proceed to ignore the complete history of Intamin's rollercoaster history.

Data can show whatever you want when you limit the data set.

[Then proceeds to look only at a limited data set: CF's Intamin installations.]

I have already agreed (repeatedly) that CF has every valid reason to not wish to work with Intamin again -- and haven't even remotely suggested they should continue to work with Intamin.

I continue to disagree with global (mis)characterizations which you (and others) continue to throw out about how "all," "most" "majority" "many" (the terms continually shift) of Intamin's coasters are problematic. - - without even making a half-assed attempt at any legitimate data analysis of the actual inventory of Intamin coaster installations across the world that would allow you to make these sweeping generalizations. That's because the actual data, when you fairly consider all their rollercoasters, shows those kinds statements are inaccurate.

Sandor, this is a Wendy's.

I dont have any real concern with Zamperla doing this project.

They are working with largely mature technologies that are somewhat ubiquitous now.

LSM launches have been around for a good while.

Rollercoaster trains are not a new technology. The design requirements for high speed rolling stock are well known. Same for wheel materials that can handle high speeds. These issues were worked out decades ago.

I suspect that the knowledge base across the industry and its design experts is pretty broad by now.

Same thing with building large towers (not specific to rollercoasters) and the engineering requirements for footers and support structure to handle these loads.

Same for track structural requirements to handle these types of loads. There have been so many variations for so long (old Intamin box track, new Intamin spine track, B&M's track) that there is broad industry experience and data on the performance and reliability of different track designs for large scale coasters.

I suspect Zamperla will contract with experts as necessary to harness any required technical knowledge they might not have in house, much as Intamin and others did with Stengel, for example.

It's not like they are introducing some radically new and complex design like the hydraulic launch on TTD, or even something less complex yet still bleeding-edge like magnetic brakes and elevator lifts were 20 years ago.

What they are ostensibly doing is simply a large scale implementation of mature technology.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again…

djDaemon:
Whether or not Velocicoaster is reliable has no bearing on that whatsoever.

It's also worth noting that Velocicoaster's reliability has some factors in play. It had a much longer testing phase than most new Intamins go through. I think partially due to how much trouble Uni had with Hagrids when it was "rushed" to open on time. Then, there's a rumor I heard that Uni found the trains on Velocicoaster to be "rough" during testing and twisted Intamins arm in order to fix the issue.
Not exactly sure what those fixes ended up being but it's only a rumor. However, I wouldn't be surprised if it was true since Uni also has a crap ton of capital to throw at these projects and would probably want their year round coaster to run at peak performance and have issues ironed out.

Regarding this whole issue, my view on it is mixed. It's definitely a gamble going with Zamperla, theres no doubt about it. But judging by what they themselves have said, I'm more than willing to be hopeful that they can step up to the plate. Intamin wouldn't be where they are if they didn't take risks and the same can be said for Zamperla, who is trying to change they're approach to coaster design

At the same time, I'm not going to be surprised if this doesnt quite work out.....whatever that ends up meaning. There's no doubt that Zamperla (and CP) is probably feeling the pressure to get this right. They deserve a chance to show they are ready and willing to step up to the plate.

And while I think bringing up Wild Mouse is a valid point, I think we have to consider that it is also a new model from Zamperla that is going through first year jitters. Heck, Intamin still has problems with their new rides including rides that have been running for years. While they have made strides,
they still aren't the bastions of perfect reliability.

veritas55:

I have already agreed (repeatedly) that CF has every valid reason to not wish to work with Intamin again -- and haven't even remotely suggested they should continue to work with Intamin.

Then what are you even arguing about? We're talking about Cedar Point and the lemon ride that they're "reimagining."

Intamin still has issues after building cutting-edge coasters for more than 20 years, so obviously they can’t be trusted with this job. Better to go with Zamperla, who will definitely get it right on their first try.

I’m not saying TTD 2.0 will be a disaster because of Zamperla, but it absolutely does concern me. I’d be happy to see them knock it out of the park and have this project be their massive leap to building world-class coasters.

CF will either come out looking like geniuses for putting their faith in Zamperla, or like absolute morons for trusting a company with zero experience in anything close to this magnitude. Hoping for the former, but worried about the latter. Bring on 2024!

Anyone have any definitive info on it being Zamperla and not Intamin? It seems everyone on the internet gets their info from the same two or three YouTubers and their info comes from unnamed sources. Why are these unnamed sources all of a sudden right about Zamperla but weren’t right days, weeks and months ago?

Pictures and video of the track and supports look to be the ones sent overseas for reworking. Google search track and supports on site from 2002 and compare with the recently delivered track. Even the support posted by CP as a tease matches ones from 2002.

I did read in this thread about two versus one fin but saw the follow-up pointed out Intamin uses both single and double. Anything else people have noted?