Here, here. I need a job, money to fix up my car, and a platinum pass. *runs off frantically looking for a job*
I agree with the poster who said the oil price crisis is yet to come and here is why.
On business I've been going to a city in China called Dong Ying
In 2003, no flights from Beijing' 20% cars/80% bikes in Dong Ying
In 2005, two small jet flights a week from Beijing, about 50/50 cars to bikes in Dong Ying.
In 2007, daily 737 flights from Beijing, about 75% cars 25% bikes.
Dong Ying has 2 million people in it and it's considered a small town, in fact when you mention it to people in Beijing no one has ever heard of it.
It's less than an hours flight, 2 million people. Imagine no one in Cleveland ever hearing about Columbus.
That's one half of the problem. Demand for oil continues to skyrocket, especially in China and India.
The other half of the problem is that real oil production has flatlined the last couple years. I won't get into all the hoary details, but there are a growing number of oil analysts that believe that we're reached the global peak in oil production. We may even see production decrease by up to 3% in 2008.
The problem is that even though new fields continue to be discovered and brought on line, the production capacity of these fields doesn't make up for the decline in output from developed reserves. Not to mention those new fields cost much more to develop and typically provide far less production output than the depleted fields they are replacing.
The basic thinking is that from here on out (and with a few contrary blips), oil production is going to go downhill, pretty much indefinitely. There are other sources of oil and oil-like energy sources. The development of Canadian tar sand reserves may help to slow down the curve downward. There is a lot of talk about getting oil shales in the U.S. west to be profitable, but from everything I've read that simply isn't going to pan out.
Tell you what: I wouldn't be buying an SUV or mini-van any time soon, if I had a choice.
My author website: mgrantroberts.com.
You must be logged in to post