Soak City Announcement on

Aj1 posted this picture in the Mean Streak thread.

Aj1 said: The park sent these out to the media.

It looks like a Soak City expansion for 2017 is pretty much confirmed at this point.

I'm shocked! Shocked, I say!

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm starting to think the RMC Mean Streak conversion, if any, might not be complete until 2018. It wouldn't be shocking, yet it would be a surprise to see a Soak City expansion and a major coaster project in the same year, given the park's capex history.

And, when you factor in the time that past RMC retrofits have taken (even more recent ones) in warm winter climates, I have some doubt as to whether they would be able to complete MS in one Ohio winter given what appears will be a late start.

Plus, if the RMC contract was just signed a couple of months ago as has been rumored, I wonder have they even done the design work yet? I'm not sure how this works contractually, and if anybody (Rideman?) has visibility into this, I'd be interested in hearing about it. It seems that there would be a lot of work involved to design something like an I-Box retrofit of Mean Streak. I'd be a little surprised if a company would do such work without compensation, other than something very high-level. Do parks often enter in to a small deal with a potential vendor to come up with a design, and then enter into a much larger contract to build the ride if they like what they see? Sort of like record labels will give bands an advance to go into a studio to record a demo, and then invest in a full-featured album if they like what they hear?

If the design work doesn't start until after the signing of the main contract, then it seems implausible to me from my layman's perspective that they would be able to have this open in 2017.

As far as Soak City goes, I hope they build a replacement for the speed slides! Something with at least equal ability to get massive air on the drops. Those were my favorite waterslides anywhere ever, tied with the old Bansai aka Triple Drop at the long-defunct Six Flags Atlantis. Since they removed them, I've lost pretty much all desire to go into Soak City. So I'm hoping there will be something that appeals to me in the expansion.

DA20Pilot said:

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm starting to think the RMC Mean Streak conversion, if any, might not be complete until 2018.

Am I missing something? Like truly, am I really just dumb and didn't understand the whole mean streak announcement? I thought they announced Mean Streak was coming down PERMANENTLY. How could you RMC Mean Streak, then? Is this just a pipe dream, or did I truly misinterpret the announcement.

They announced that MS would "get the axe", which is a very strong indicator that it will be modified in some way, rather than removed. If they planned to remove it entirely, they likely would have said it was "being removed for future expansion".

Well don't open the weenies yet.

The MS structure will not be completely torn down. Whether it comes back in 17 or 18, or what company is doing the work remains a mystery.

I see no reason why an expansion of SC and a renovation of MS couldn't happen in the same season. I thought SC was a given this year due to the removal of the go karts but with the MS announcement a few weeks ago why wouldn't/couldn't they do both.

CP and SC are separate parks, so they likely each operate with their own budget. So doing something at both parks really isn't far fetched. If CP and SC were all one park, then yes it would be. I am however, not expecting anything to happen in the STR space until 2018.

The reason I have my doubts about both projects in one offseason is the cost.
Given the cost of past major coaster projects combined with the costs of a waterpark expansion, they could be approaching the costs of the Breakers renovation, which they had to sell a waterpark to finance. I guess it depends on the scope of the Soak City project combined with how much RMC's prices have inflated since Iron Rattler's $10 million price tag 7 years ago. I'm using IR as an example because I believe that is the most recent RMC I-box project comparable in size and scope to MS.

Hotel Brrakers was in excess of 50 million, I don't think MS and a SC expansion would come remotely close to that figure. Also, with the crowds I've seen and the past several CF financial reports nothing would shock me at this point.

If you look at it like two different parks like Thabto said, it seems reasonable. Cedar Point isn't likely to miss out just because Kings Island is getting Mystic Timbers so there wouldn't be any reason both CP and SC could get something in the same year either if they are treated as separate parks that happen to be next to each other.

Yes, Breakers was around $50 mil. I am guessing that an RMC MS conversion could approach 20 mil given inflation, though it might well be less. If the SC expansion costs 20 mil, then the total capex for both projects would be $40 mil, which would be 80 percent of the Breakers costs and notably more than the park has ever spent in one offseason without selling off a substantial asset to finance it. Obviously I have no idea if my guessed figures are remotely on target, but it seems reasonable enough to instill doubt.

Is cedar fair as a whole a financially strong company?

Yes but you reach a point where your capex in a given year can't exceed a certain percentage of your revenues/margins without negatively impacting your financials and your share price.

Look at Islands of Adventure. They spent so much to build that park from scratch and it was many, many years before they turned a profit. Often times in publicly traded companies investors aren't willing to wait that long for a return. So the company must manage the about of debt-financed expenditures they undertake in relation to their revenues.

Another somewhat related example is Cedar Fair's purchase of Paramount Parks. It was too much at once and decimated the share price for a good while.

Millennium Force and Breakers Express construction occurred in a single off season. With the recent Phase 2 Hotel Breakers renovation and Mantis/Rougarou conversion, a Soak City expansion and unidentified MS area project isn't unrealistic.

Very good points kylepark. I'm not saying it won't happen, and there are many cases to be made that it could. But looking at the totality of the situation, including the time it could take to design and build an RMC MS during a Sandusky winter, combined with what appears to be a SC expansion for 2017, has planted some doubt in my mind. I hope it happens though. I don't want to wait til 2018 for the new MS.

This just in: Mean Streak will be replaced with the largest wave pool in the world! ... In all seriousness, I understand where San Antonio is. That is to state; not on Lake Erie in the fall/winter/spring.. But MS closing date is very near the timing of SFFT's Rattler conversion. RMCMS is certainly possible for the 2017 season.

There is no logical reason to close Mean Streak before the end of the season if nothing was happening to it for 2017.

Given this development it looks like there will indeed also be a Soak City expansion. It might seem like a lot, but it really isn't. It also gives the park the opportunity to market every new attraction since 2013 in a very impressive way.

Fat Man Tarkey said:

There is no logical reason to close Mean Streak before the end of the season if nothing was happening to it for 2017.

Just because you can't think of a logical reason doesn't mean there isn't one.

djDaemon said:

Fat Man Tarkey said:

There is no logical reason to close Mean Streak before the end of the season if nothing was happening to it for 2017.

Just because you can't think of a logical reason doesn't mean there isn't one.

Then why dont you come up with a logical reason as to why nothing will happen in 2017?