How will the recession(depression)affect CP

Will people continue paying the motels,the high price of eating in restaurants or at the park, not to mention the cost of park tickets or passes when the economy is in shambles?

I intend this simply as a rhetorical question.

I think they will be less busy this year. The restuarants and ski resorts I've been to this fall and winter seem to have taken a hit in business.

While I think that the 3-4 day stays by out-of-state guests at places like the Hotel Breakers or the indoor waterparks will be down significantly this year, I think that you only have to look to what is currently happening at Disneyland in California to see that season pass sales will likely be up significantly this year. For those that haven't heard, lines to process annual passes at Disneyland can be as long as 45 minutes or more right now as locals from Southern California see Disneyland Annual Passes as a relative value for a full-year of entertainment.

I think that you'll see the same thing at Cedar Point. The reasoning behind this is that locals from Toledo, Cleveland, Columbus, Detroit, etc. (2-3 hour drive time) will see a Cedar Point season pass as a low-cost alternative to taking a full-scale vacation this summer. Instead of spending $1000+ for a 3 day trip to Chicago, Niagra Falls, New York, or even more expensive vacations like $2000-4000 for a week at Disney World or a cruise, families can enjoy Cedar Point all summer long for about $350-400 for a family of 4.

When you consider that many of those families will use their passes 5-8 times or more over the course of the summer and compare that cost to going to even going to the movies every few weeks, Cedar Point season passes provide quality family entertainment at a cost that breaks down to about $3-5 per hour for the entire family.

With nothing significantly new being built this year, and the economy showing little signs of rapid improvement, I believe the "big" news this summer will be in the form of packages and bundles that will shore up the lost revenue of people simply cutting back - especially if gas prices go back up.

I can envision a free second day offer that gets you into the water park if you stay overnight (on CF property) or some sort of meal budget as part of a "stay-a-while" package.

Without a "percieved" improvement in pricing or attractions, a lot of people may very well take a year off visinting CP, or look to other destinations. Because, let's face it, a new stage show isn't going to be much of a draw.

Lowering the parking fees, improving the quality/cost of food, and offering some sort of incentive in the admission prices would go a long way in the PR department - and the bottom line.

I honestly think that in this financial time, the last thing that's going to affect anyone other than "enthusiasts" is whether or not CP adds something new.

Now, the food quality and parking/admission, I'll agree with.

Attendance this season will be down from the last couple years. But not by much. "IF" gas prices stay this low through the summer i dont think the recession will have that big of an effect. But if gas prices go back up to $4.00 and the economy dose not get any better cedar point could take a huge hit. I plan to visit allot this summer but if gas goes up i probably wont be going to many times. Last season was hard enough with gas at 4bucks but if you put the two together forget about it....

Yes, $4 gas would be a killer.That would be the last straw.We plan our usual amount of trips,3-4 but that could change if things get any worse.

I would bet money that you'll see gas rise again. Gas typically is lower anyways during the winter months, since there's less travel, but don't think the oil companies won't jump on the summer traffic boom come April or May.

Most economic analysts believe that the second quarter of 2010 is where we will start to see a market rebound, and with every month that goes by, without help or aid, you can tack on equal time for recovery.

I think this season, for Cedar Point, will see more decline in overall sales figures than they did last year..you have to remember that we really didn't hit rock bottom until late summer/fall, so the season was able to remain relatively strong.

I think what we'll see overall is less one-day trips, and more multiple day trips and season pass sales.

Yes Gas prices are typically lower in the winter and higher in summer. BUT last year was due to the Hurricanes in the south the year before. If you remember Katrina hit one of the biggest oil refineries in the golf. Then there was that Hurricane early last year that hit dead center of the most concentrated area of oil refineries that made gas prices hit an all time high of 4 bucks.
Gas has not been this low in 3 to 4 years. They are saying we are swimming in oil an the south and it is expected that gas prices will continue to fall throughout the year.
So Hopefully we do not have a category 5 hurricane hit those refineries this year.
But as stated above cedar point will have lower attendance this year due to the economy.
Oh DARN more ride time on maverick!

I think RidePhoto hit it spot-on. If you are close enough to visit CP more than once, or live in a place like Columbus, Ohio (like me) and ar elucky to be equidistant from two great parks (KI and CP), you simply can't beat the value you can squeeze out of a season pass. There's no question for us about renewing.

I know for us personally, we are planning on getting season passes not just for my husband and I but our daughter as well this year. We are about two hours away and love to just hop in the car on a free weekend and head down. But we are also planning a trip to WDW and Universal for spring break and another trip to Universal for Halloween Horror Nights.

I'm guessing attendance will be within about 1-2% of last year and could possibly be up if the weather is nice (see reasons stated above), but the big question remains revenue from resorts.

Back when Cedar Fair bought the Paramount Parks, we got a rare glimpse into the company's revenue on a park-by-park basis. As I recall, and someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but Cedar Point's revenue was nearly twice that of King's Island (the top Paramount Park) and Canada's Wonderland, even though both of those parks beat Cedar Point in attendance. The reasoning behind this is the added revenue that Cedar Point gains from resorts, a separate gate waterpark and the marina.

If the company has to significantly discount the resorts or marina to maintain occupancy rates, or if occupancy drops this year as a result of more people choosing day trips as opposed to overnight stays, that could have a significant impact on the company's bottom line.

As a LP unitholder, this is a rare instance in which I am glad that the company doesn't own more resorts (as opposed to say a Disney), because as an overall company, Cedar Fair receives a comparatively low percentage of revenues from outside the park spending. Still, I am very concerned about the next 12-18 months and hoping that performance remains strong enough that the company does not break any covenants in their long-term financing agreements which would require them to reduce or end the $1.88/unit distribution. If that goes, I'm afraid all hell will break loose and the stock will lose significantly more value as the income funds dump it.

I know we are all feeling the effect of what is happening lately! I know that I really had to work out my budget to buy my passes this year! I am looking forward to this summer! I know that when I am at the parks, It is my only escape from everything that is happening! I know that we are trying to go to Disney, but thanks to all of the happenings, we can't afford to go this year!

Well due to the down turn in the economy and not able to find work in the Sandusky area I was forced to move back home to WV. And being so far away I doubt that I will get the season pass for only 2 trips (1 to Cedar Point and 1 to King's Island, Diamondback :) So that is one pass that they are not getting this year.

I don't know.

Some people might not go because it is too costly. While others might be giving up vacations to further away destinations and deciding to stay closer to home (living in the midwest) and go to CP.

I predict its going to be down. Job losses will play a role in season pass purchases and families who might normally go. I think they will play a larger role than those who choose to stay closer to home and go to Cedar Point.

This economy is all kinds of oddly cool. If you have a job everyone is throwing a deal at you. Airline tickets, hotel rooms everywhere is cheap. I am finding the clearance racks at high end retailers are really huge lately.

I just won a 2 park 7 day pass to Universal Studio / IOA, and my girlfriend did as well. Valid anytime between now and the end of the year. Top that off with $89 flights from GR to Orlando, and a $60 hotel room. Can't say I've ever won anything like this from Cedar Point (this was Universal giving away the passes, not a third party company).

I think CF has a positve look ahead. All of their parks excluding CP have people coming from like only a 40 miles radius, so it really shouldn't cost them that much to get to a park and enjoy it. I think the resorts at CP will be down and I can see people making one day visits this summer instead of 2 or 3 day visits.

I'd like to see your evidence for that assertion. I suspect parks like KI, CW and KBF draw from a much larger area than you claim.

Kinzel said it in this interview. (It's a video)

http://www.truveo.com/Theme-Park-Indicator/id/4088344722

I'm sorry I guess I should have said 100 mile radius as Kinzel says.

You know, I missed that interview when it came out. Thanks for catching that. And 100 miles sounds about right.

Here's what I think. The vast majority of parks are going to be down -- and maybe way down. The recession is deepening enough that many families won't be able to spend even the limited dollars that an expedition to the local park would entail. And other families that could afford it won't because of fear and uncertainty about the future of their jobs.

A sobering thought: a number of professional sports teams are laying off employees or freezing hiring because of the economy. This is almost unheard of. Professional sports is generally virtually immune to the ups and downs of Main Street or Wall Street. That doesn't bode well for any other entertainment industry, such as movies, the arts, or amusement parks.

I'm not saying it's going to happen. Things could show signs of turning around by summer, perhaps enough to induce a little bit of optimism among consumers and families. But on the bad side, I've been reading about a number of other shoes that have yet to drop, which may dwarf the crisis to date.

I've got a friend who works for an Indy car marketing firm, and they're having a hard time getting sponsors. Big time. It's weird to see this touching all kinds of strange areas.

The thread on CB about what Cedar Fair is doing with regards to its credit sure makes you wonder. The next analyst call should be interesting.