How could the park extend its operating season?

The PointGuru said:

Also, just to briefly touch on operating expenses. If the park is open, it raises revenue, that covers operating expenses. Labor cost is the biggest operational expense in any industry, especially the amusement industry. Just one example that hugely simplifies what I am talking about. CP averages toughly 3,000,000 visitors a year. Divide that by roughly 120 operating days a year. That is 25,000 visitors on average a day. Charge just $30 per guest for a limited operation "sneak peak day" that is $750,000 a day in just admissions. X2 days for the weekend and that is $1,500,000 in 1 weekend alone. These numbers don't take any of the other money generating sources into effect. Now hire 100 year round staff at $30,000. That is $3,000,000 a year. In just 2 average weekends the park would generate enough revenue in admissions alone to hire 100 permanent full time staff.

Here is where your business skills fail you. You just cant take the average attendance and spread it equally by the number of operating days. CP really generates most of its operating revenue from Mid June through the end of August (Hint: see operating hours). Thats when kids are out of school and families are on vacation.

Opening the park earlier will draw a very large percentage of enthusiasts. Here is where your business plans fails:

1. These enthusiasts will most likely already have season passes and their decision to purchase a season pass is not dependent on the parking opening earlier. Result: Little increase in ticket sales/parking fees.

2. Most enthusiasts don't spend nearly as much money in the park as the traditional vacation guest. They don't always fork out the $3 for a Coke, $18 to eat at Midway Market and don't buy souviner's because we already have a closet full of CP gear. Result: little in park spending.

3. Take a quick look at the average weather conditions in Sandusky in March/April and compare it to October and you would find that the conditions are highly similar. Average temps in March/April are lower and the average precip is higher, along with average wind speed. Result: less early season good weather operating days.

Conclusion: Data does not warrant opening the park earlier in the season.

Now its time to move onto another thread.....

Jeff said:
This thread is a big box of stupid. Seriously.

I was thinking a bunch of little boxes of stupid all with the same label in the top left corner.

DSShives said:
You cant just open the park additional weekends and expect that the park will generate the necessary income not only to cover expenses, but to generate the kind of profit margin that justifies being open more.

No offence to Jeff, this is the point of the entire thread and (on this point) I think it is an intelligent discussion. Clearly there is a difference of opinion on the amount of revenue the park would make if it opened on 4 or 5 weekends earlier. Halloweekends shows that it would at least be worth a shot. Despite giving implicate warning that the budgeting / attendance example were a gross over simplification, it still went over peoples heads. 25,000 people plus in the park on a gorgeous spring day would be an underestimate. The proposal to add a small number of year round staff recognized the staffing issues.

The real question I guess I should have asked is at what profit margin is management still willing to operate the park. Obviously, the peak summer months is when the park makes its biggest profits. Not utilizing infrastructure of the park that sits dormant during nice weather is lost revenue. The real question is how hard is park management willing to work for revenue that does not reach the huge margins reached in the peak summer months. It is just a thought to raise more revenue rather than using hidden fees jacking prices up on customers all the time.

Let me point out SOME of the objections that have been raised that you have ignored:

1) Halloweekends did not increase attendance, they merely cannibalized it from other dates. Thus your plan increases costs but not attendance.

2) You assume that you can wake up, check the weather and decide to open the park at minimal costs. In your world, cleaning 364 acres, doing offseason maintenance, etc can be done by adding "a few" fulltime employees.

3) You assume that the 3,000 or so employees that CP needs to operate the park are available in March & April. Or, that they can be replaced by "a few" full time employees.

4) You assume that people who go to CP in Oct (average high 61) would go in March (average high 44) or April (average high 55). BTW, the average low in March is below freezing, so anything fluid like lubricants would freeze on multiple nights. Average low in October: 45. (Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandusky,_Ohio#Climate)

Again, you simply ignore these objections. Accordingly, I propose another option: build a coaster tall enough to run to Detroit. Put a second lift hill in Detroit and you could have customers "enter" the park from Michigan. If you are concerned that weather might close it too often, build a retractable dome over it.

Being relatively new to the site, I will apologize if I have truly offended anyone, it is not my intent. All I can say is I love the park, it is not perfect and some things need to be improved. I am well aware that some of my ideas are "outside the box" or even a tad on the radical side. That doesn't mean they aren't founded in sound or proven concepts. At no time have I ever stated I was right or even that I had all the answers. However, even the most adamant skeptic would have to admit, some of them are at least plausible. I think we all can agree CP is a great park. I'm never going to be offended by anything anyone says about my post. It's just not that big of a deal. You either like them or you don't. I learn about the park and am entertained by some of my post and other peoples. That's what I thought this site was for. In my humble opinion, some people just have to lighten up a little bit. I hope Jeff or Walt don't want to ban me from posting just because I don't agree with them all the time. Just keep an open mind and a sense of humor and I think everyone will grow a lot fonder of my post.

The PointGuru said:
At no time have I ever stated I was right . . .

Actually, you have said that you were right

The PointGuru said:

However, even the most adamant skeptic would have to admit, some of them are at least plausible.

I recently listed 4 reasons why you ideas are not "at least plausible." Others have also listed other reasons. Since you have yet to even attempt to refute those reasons, no, we don't have to admit that your ideas are "at least plausible."

The PointGuru said:
I'm never going to be offended by anything anyone says about my post.

Nor, apparently, will you even attempt to refute reasoned objections to your posts. At some point not responding to articulated flaws in your ideas nukes your credibility. That is not a specific insult, just a generalization. If you want your ideas to have credibility, start coming up with reasoned answers to others' objections.

The PointGuru said:
You either like them or you don't.

No, we either agree with them, or come up with reasons why your posts appear to fail the reality tests. YOU are the one who loves your posts and refuses to refute practical objections to them.

The PointGuru said:
I learn about the park and am entertained by some of my post and other peoples. That's what I thought this site was for.

And we are entertained by exchanges that acknowledge objections and at least attempts to answer those objections. You posts fail to do that. Asserting that a few extra full timers could do the work of 3,000 seasonals at very little cost is about as entertaining as calling for the parking lots to be moved to the mainland and Chief O'Brien installing a Transporter to move guests to the Point. (Added Benefit: It could retrieve people if Windseeker got stuck).

The PointGuru said:
Just keep an open mind and a sense of humor and I think everyone will grow a lot fonder of my post.

No, you providing reasoned reponses to others' posts would cause others to "grow a lot fonder of my post."

Ok, I actually answered your questions in a post but quickly deleted it for fear of angering Jeff when I saw he closed the Platinum Pass forum. Most of your questions I already answered in other post on this thread. 1) Halloweekends does not cannibalize regular season attendance, neither would early bonus weekends. Even if you are trying to say people waited all summer just so they could go to Halloweekends the attendance remains the same and has no affect on the total admissions other than making a little more room for the peak times of the year. 2) The park already cuts staff when they are slower than expected. Closing due to weather would be the same thing, just on a bigger scale. I'm not proposing they do anything other than what they already do for Halloweekends. 3) I don't know how many times I have to post this. The park could open with limited operations. No water rides, no lifeguards for Soak City, the beach, and hotels. No hotels except for maybe Castaway Bay (which is already open) and maybe limited occupancy in Breakers (don't open Bon Air sections). Probably close Frontier Town (maybe allow access to Maverick and Mean Streak). Limited operations also means less need for supportive operations like garbage and security with less area to cover. With all those limited operations plus the number of staff already employed year round the number of staff is no where near 3000. Any remaining staff shortages could reasonable be filled with different charitable organizations or regular seasonal employees who are able to work early weekends. Again, no different than Friday nights during Halloweekends. 4) With the addition of extra year round workers the park would be able to maintain a better state of preparedness to open the park on short notice. Warm weather weekends exist every year before the park opens. Those days would be huge for the park. With limited operation even marginal weather days would be able to profitable. The enormous profit margins park gets during its peak times clouds how many visitors the park really needs to be profitable when it is open. Again, Friday nights in Halloweekends is proof. While I have never seen "the books" for those nights I would bet the farm they are still profitable or the park wouldn't have them.

What profit margin does the park need to make before they consider it worth their time to open the park is the question.

I don't think Cedar Point is disappointed with their current profit margin. At least not enough to add 2 extra months of cannibalizing guest sales from later months and having to pay "a few" extra full-time workers

I actually agree with that, and is the best reason I have heard yet for why they wouldn't extend the season. Pure complacency. But, who ever heard of a company not wanting to make more money? Doubt, it would cannibalize more admissions than it generated especially if it was promoted as a "sneak peak" it would likely increase peak seasons as well.

Most people do Cedar Point once a year. And they do in in June/July/August. Teens like to hit up Halloweekends an extra time on top of their summer trip. Adding an early Spring season would not increase overall attendance enough to pay for the extra salaries and maintenance needed to run the park extra. There are only so many people in Northern Ohio area to attend, and most people further away will not plan a trip to the park (since most people that aren't Platinum Pass enthusiasts plan their trips way ahead) when it is 40 degrees out. They want it to be 80-90 and sunny so they can hit some of the water rides and wear a t-shirt instead of a hoodie.

The PointGuru said:
1) Halloweekends does not cannibalize regular season attendance, neither would early bonus weekends. Even if you are trying to say people waited all summer just so they could go to Halloweekends the attendance remains the same and has no affect on the total admissions other than making a little more room for the peak times of the year.

It has 1 other effect: Increasing costs. This is a point that you seem to keep ignoring. We all agree that opening more days = more revenue. But it also means more expenses and less profit. If you are correct, why wouldn't the park operate 24/7? The infrastructure is there, wouldn't that generate extra revenue? Of course it would. But it it also increases costs more.

The PointGuru said:
2) The park already cuts staff when they are slower than expected. Closing due to weather would be the same thing, just on a bigger scale. I'm not proposing they do anything other than what they already do for Halloweekends.

So, if the March forecast calls for snow, they open the park anyway? BTW average low for Sandusky in Oct is 45 degrees. Very little snow. Average low in March: 29 degrees.
I see dead peo, err, many costs.

The PointGuru said:
3) I don't know how many times I have to post this. The park could open with limited operations. No water rides, no lifeguards for Soak City, the beach, and hotels. No hotels except for maybe Castaway Bay (which is already open) and maybe limited occupancy in Breakers (don't open Bon Air sections). Probably close Frontier Town (maybe allow access to Maverick and Mean Streak). Limited operations also means less need for supportive operations like garbage and security with less area to cover. With all those limited operations plus the number of staff already employed year round the number of staff is no where near 3000. Any remaining staff shortages could reasonable be filled with different charitable organizations or regular seasonal employees who are able to work early weekends. Again, no different than Friday nights during Halloweekends.

I admit that have no data to back me up, but I suspect that the number of people willing to work on a Point extending into a Lake when it is 44 (the ave high for March) is much less than those who will work when it is 61 (ave for Oct). And since you are open every weekend just like "what they already do for Halloweekends" you will have the park staffed even if the high is 35 degrees. I'm guessing that attendance will not come close to covering the costs.

You keep saying "Halloweekends." CF tried a version of your plan for Christmas. Even at KI, which is warmer and closer to the population, it failed. How does your plan differ from that which was tried and failed?

BTW, how does the fact that the ave low in March is below freezing affect water pipes in unheated buildings, or lubricants on machinery sitting outside? I'm guessing differently than in Oct when the average low is well above freezing (45 degrees)

Incidently, the RECORD low for Sandusky in Oct is 24, vs an AVERAGE March low of 29. And the record low for Sandusky in March is -4.

The PointGuru said:
4) With the addition of extra year round workers the park would be able to maintain a better state of preparedness to open the park on short notice.

How many acres can one person clean?

The PointGuru said:
Warm weather weekends exist every year before the park opens. Those days would be huge for the park. With limited operation even marginal weather days would be able to profitable.

Then why did your plan fail at Christmas? Was it because the crowds were too small (and remember, the more "limited" the operations, the smaller the crowd) or because expenses were too great (the less "limited" the operations, the bigger the costs) or both?
Christmas in the Park! Christmas in the Park!

The PointGuru said:
The enormous profit margins park gets during its peak times clouds how many visitors the park really needs to be profitable when it is open. Again, Friday nights in Halloweekends is proof.

And the failure of Christmas in the Park is proof that just opening the park on any old day does not generate profit.

BTW, among the objections you ignore:
1) Weather in March is worse than in Oct

2) People go in Oct b/c if they don't the park will be closed in Nov. In Mar & Ap the park will be open in May, June, etc, thus giving people the opposite incentive.

3) Halloween is a popular holiday. Not only will there be no "Spring Haunts" or other attractions that are unique to Halloweekends (I don't think Easter Screamsters will catch on), if CP follows your plan of "limited" operations there is even more incentive to wait to go to the park.

Captain Hawkeye said:

You assume that the 3,000 or so employees that CP needs to operate the park are available in March & April. Or, that they can be replaced by "a few" full time employees.

In addition to the operations I mentioned before, your 3000 employee figure includes employees to staff peak summer operating hours of 9:00 AM until midnight. At least 2 shifts in most cases. Limited operations in spring would likely have 1 shift of Noon to 8:00 PM. That's almost half your figure there. Spring operation need far less.

Interesting. You respond to 1 poit and ignore anything else.

Fine. Only 1 shift. That's now 1,500 people. Who you make full time, 2,000 hour per year employees.

Plus all of the other objections.

Christmas in the Park! Christmas in the Park!

But maintenance and general upkeep are not free. The wear and tear on rides is another factor being completely overlooked.

I'd wager to guess that Cedar Fair has a couple accountants who have actually done studies and have actually determined with real, exact figures that the current operating system is a sweet spot. Or else we'd have the same operating time as say, Carowinds

The PointGuru said: That's almost half your figure there. Spring operation need far less.

And this is why you don't run an amusement park company. It's not that simple.

No one said it was. But, throw in the other things I mentioned and you are looking at far, far less than 3000. Best educated guess would be about 1/3 the number of people needed during peak times. That is a far easier number to reach staffing wise. It could even be less.

I thought Jeff asked you nicely to pipe down and you said you were going to? Please do it now.

A less than comprehensive list of objections that you ignore:

If you are correct, why wouldn't the park operate 24/7? The infrastructure is there, wouldn't that generate extra revenue? Of course it would. But it it also increases costs more.

You keep saying "Halloweekends." CF tried a version of your plan for Christmas. Even at KI, which is warmer and closer to the population, it failed. How does your plan differ from that which was tried and failed?

How does the fact that the ave low in March is below freezing affect water pipes in unheated buildings, or lubricants on machinery sitting outside? I'm guessing differently than in Oct when the average low is well above freezing (45 degrees)

Weather in March is worse than in Oct

People go in Oct b/c if they don't the park will be closed in Nov. In Mar & Ap the park will be open in May, June, etc, thus giving people the opposite incentive.

Halloween is a popular holiday. Not only will there be no "Spring Haunts" or other attractions that are unique to Halloweekends (I don't think Easter Screamsters will catch on), if CP follows your plan of "limited" operations there is even more incentive to wait to go to the park.

Oh, and even if I accept your analysis, you've just added 1,000 full time employees to the overhead. Not a "few."

What's the lowest temp the coasters will even safely operate at?

45Wheelgun said:
I thought Jeff asked you nicely to pipe down and you said you were going to? Please do it now.

I tried, I was asked back by popular demand.