CP Reopening- Gov DeWine comments

Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:02 PM

There’s something fishy about it all. I think that’s why they made a statement about the new house bill.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:04 PM
Thabto's avatar

If they think zoos are less crowded than amusement parks, they are mistaken. I went to Cincinatti Zoo during their holiday season while on a KI winterfest trip. The zoo was packed to the brim and you could barely breathe in there while at KI there was plenty of room for everyone to be spaced apart. But when there's capacity limits, what may be more crowded is irrelevant.

Last edited by Thabto, Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:07 PM

Brian
Valravn Rides: 24| Steel Vengeance Rides: 26| Dragster Rollbacks: 1
2021 Visits: 3

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:07 PM

Goes beyond a debate I would normally have on this board, but since it started anyway will add to it. Lots of false numbers from bad math flying around the media.

CDC estimates the mortality rate is between 0.2 to 0.3% and most antibody tests done support numbers somewhere around there (usually a bit higher). This virus is really, really bad in highly compromised populations, but is barely a factor at all in other demographics. Even if we assume no one had any natural immunity before this (and there is evidence other coronaviruses present in flu strands have given people immunity) then we are probably talking 60% of the population getting this before it slows down dramatically (herd immunity, do not confuse that for it going away though).

Using those numbers we have 330,000,000x 0.6 x0.002 (and then switch 0.002 with 0.003). That gives us an estimate of between 396,000 and 594,000 deaths in this country if virus allowed to spread, if no one has natural immunity beforehand, and if it hits all demographics equally (increase or decrease those number depending on if at risk people hit disproportionately high or low).

We can debate the correct course of action from there, but we do have to move past those multi-million numbers because they do not fit the facts. (Note: I bought N95 masks, toilet paper, food, and medicine in February so I was prepared for this to be worse. As the data came in from the Diamond Princess, Italy, etc, it just didn't back up that those kind of numbers were even remotely accurate though).

Along those same lines, every single antibody test done so far has shown a minimum of 10x more people infected in an area than the official totals. That means we are, at a minimum, past 18 million people in the country who have had the virus. My personal guess is that the actual number is more than twice that and we are well past 10% of the population which has been infected so far.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:11 PM
operative_me's avatar

Also interesting to note that casinos will remain closed. That's money maker for the state.


-Craig
Lifetime Laps on Woodstock Express: 0

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:13 PM
DRE420's avatar

The logic that DeWine is using is mind blowing. I'm just dumbfounded by his thoughts that zoo's and indoor movie theaters can practice proper social distancing, but Cedar Point and Kings Island can't.

Last edited by DRE420, Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:13 PM
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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:13 PM
Kevinj's avatar

While I understand why there was no conference today, it sure is pretty convenient that they now have a weekend to come up answers to the obvious questions that would arise as to why they would betray Cedar Point (and, in many ways, Ohio's economy) in this manner.

Zoos (I'm thinking Columbus, Akron, Cleveland) are not only crowded, but there are full of narrow walkways and indoor sections where distancing is going to be completely compromised.

I'm just really dumbfounded.

Last edited by Kevinj, Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:18 PM

Promoter of fog.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:14 PM
Thabto's avatar

Maybe if we all go down to Dewine's office and do this, he'll allow parks to open:


Brian
Valravn Rides: 24| Steel Vengeance Rides: 26| Dragster Rollbacks: 1
2021 Visits: 3

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:25 PM
99er's avatar

Maybe Cedar Fair is playing hardball with DeWine's office? Could that be a thing? DeWine could have set out a plan for the parks to follow and they could have said no and wanted more. That's about all I can come up with since they are not included but zoos are.

Last edited by 99er, Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:26 PM
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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:26 PM
DRE420's avatar

I'm starting to think he has something against tourism. Like he genuinely hates our money, which for a Republican, is impossible.

Now the amendment to HR 665 makes perfect sense, unfortunately, he still has to sign it. I can see this getting legal.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:29 PM
99er's avatar

But a lot of that list is made up of tourism business. Granted all of items on that list don't even come close to Cedar Point and Kings Island in terms of daily attendance so maybe that is what he is thinking of?


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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:35 PM
DRE420's avatar

Yeah, but none of that except maybe the zoo's will bring in cash from surrounding states. Like Thabto said, zoo's always seem more congested than CP or KI. If capacity will be limited, I don't see any difference.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 5:35 PM

Everyone on this site doesn't seem to allow anyone to have an opinion unless is is based on statistical data.

The problem isn't your opinion. The problem is you're doing non-sensical calculations to support your opinion. I told you my calculation was glib.

And, you can say that somehow 10x isn't possible, but we moved from 100 cases at the beginning of March to 100K cases at the end. Three orders of magnitude. A 10x increase in cases every 10 days. We slowed that down because we took aggressive measures in mid-March. That doesn't mean we need to continue to be as aggressive for sure. But, to play it off as some nonsensically calculated tiny number is objectively incorrect.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 6:06 PM
Lowkae's avatar

Jeff said:

Ohio, at the peek in mid-March, had an infection rate of 2.2, meaning that for every person who was infected, 2.2 others would be infected. 2 turns to 4, to 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, etc.

I still question how effective the shutdowns were. Since very few places didn't lockdown, it's almost impossible to make comparisons. Sweden didn't and they were hit noticeably harder than other places, but it still wasn't remotely as bad as the initial models predicted, which predicted millions of deaths within a few months if steps weren't immediately taken. I'm not saying locking down wasn't at all effective or justified when this all started, only that it I think it had less of an effect than you believe. This virus seems to be burning itself out faster than we thought it would, and we can't explain why right now.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 6:30 PM
DRE420's avatar

It appears that Cedar Fair / Kings Island has filed a lawsuit against The Warren County health department and Dr. Acton.

https://www.fox19.com/2020/06/04/kings-island-sues-reopen/

Edit: Kalahari has also filed a lawsuit against Dr. Acton and the Erie Co. Health department.

Last edited by DRE420, Thursday, June 4, 2020 7:17 PM
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Thursday, June 4, 2020 6:38 PM
Sollybeast's avatar

The Twitter made me ill. I understand being frustrated with all this, and I don’t care for DeWine for completely non-COVID related reasons (I actually think he’s handled things in that regard half decent).

But all the comments of ‘COVID HOAX’ and ‘BUT YOU’LL LET PEOPLE LOOT AND RIOT’ and ‘MASKS ARE FOR ANTIFA’ are making me ashamed to be an Ohioan.


Proud 5th Liner and CP fan since 1986.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 6:40 PM
DRE420's avatar

I'm not frustrated with him for any of that, but I am for his logic on what can open and what can't.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 6:54 PM
djDaemon's avatar

Is it possible they're worried about exposure via out of state tourism? Metro Detroit has been hit pretty hard, though our metrics are greatly improved statewide.


Brandon

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 6:56 PM
Sollybeast's avatar

Nah, that I get. I read the list myself and was like ...buh???... because it's basically everything *but* amusement parks. I'd like to hear his logic on this.

What I don't get is dipping that confusion and frustration in a slimy layer of far-right logic and thinly veiled racism. I guarantee the same people fussing about the protests over George Floyd's murder in regards to COVID are the people who were crowded around the statehouse with MAGA hats and giant guns, mouthbreathing against the glass doors like a freaking Walking Dead outtake.


Proud 5th Liner and CP fan since 1986.

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 6:56 PM
vwhoward's avatar

Well there are very few reasons for us Michiganders to visit Ohio so I can see that it wouldn't take much to keep us from going if things like CP weren't open.


Joe
Eat 'em up, Tigers, eat 'em up!

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Thursday, June 4, 2020 7:02 PM
Sollybeast's avatar

Awww, but we have baby polar bears! And a top rated college footbal te--oh. XD

(I kid. I actually don't care about Buckeye football.)


Proud 5th Liner and CP fan since 1986.

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