Bottom Line...Why has attendence slipped or not met expectations? Try $38.00 bucks a ticket. If you are a family of four, CP does not offer a lot. I would not pay that price for Camp Snoopy. This is not a rip on CP, parks all over have to be experiencing the same problem. We all want new attractions, but the cost is just getting out of hand. In ten years, admission has gone up about $20.00. So in another ten years, are people going to pay $58.00? Yeah, people on this site will, but go beyond us and think about it. I can't name one co-worker of mine who went this year (about 30 people).
Also, I don't think weather this year was a problem. It should of been welcome. I went to CP three times this year and it was very comfortable. We had a very nice summer, not too humid.
Assuming inflation was steady at 3% per year, the cost has actually gone down in ten years, not up.
I keep saying... attendance has NOT gone down this year. It wasn't the substantial increase they might have been hoping for, but with bad weather, who knows. Weather was a problem, with something like twice as many rain days in the second quarter compared to last year, and as much as three or four times as much rain at some of the other parks. That's going to make a dent for sure.
All of my co-workers went to the park this year... ;)
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Jeff
Webmaster/Guide to The Point
Millennium Force laps: 39
First net sorry to hear you don't work with anyone who has visited the Point this summer.
Now regarding your statement "If you are a family of four CP does not offer alot." HOGWASH.
If the family of four is all over 48" admission is $152.00. This said family can ride approx. 40 rides plus enjoy all the shows; an OUTSTANDING VALUE. If the family in question spends 10 hours at the park the admission cost breakdown to $15.20 per hour. Compare that to other "entertainment choices", Major League Baseball decent seats are approx $30 per seat or $120 for "our family of four". For roughly three hours this family has paid $40.00 per hour.
Regarding Camp Snoopy, you are correct that it is not worth $38.00 HOWEVER this is just a SMALL part of the TOTAL PARK. If you have "liitle ones" (age 4 and up under 48") CP only charges $10.00 this is by far the best deal any of the large amusement chains offer.
As for this season, CP has had an EXCELLENT year. Yes "expectations" where not met because of weather(?), expectation too high (?), cost (?). Probably a combination of all three with the least amount being the cost.
CP is right inline with the "competition". Take the Cleveland market for example, Six Flags $38.00, Sea World $36.00 (?) , CP $38.00 which do you think is the best VALUE?
CP has a great price point and if you look at the article in the Toledo Blade it hints at little or no admission increase for 2001.
Back to the "family of four", I have just such a family and because of the VALUE we receive from CP with regard to our costs it is hard for us to chose other "entertainment". Have you ever priced taking a "family of four" to the movies....OUCH!
I agree Tim...Also, CP is the only major amusementpark with a parking fee less the 8 bucks.
Old Tim is right there. I was thinking about that very subject when I was at the point with some firends on Labor Day. They just happened to be a family of four -- 2 adults, 1 junior and one free. The adults used 2 $7.00 off cupons from Ohio Pass so the whole family got in for $72.00 plus parking. What else could they have done for a whole day and had so much at their disposal for $72.00?
Everyone should also keep in mind that the percentage of people that pay the full gate price to get in is a minority.
This happens every time. I didn't bash CP, my favorite place on earth. Let me clarify. I know tons of people who love CP and amusement parks in general, but feel it is just too expensive to go. Again, as in my previous post, this is directed at all parks, not just CP. It's a simple statement. Personally, I and all of you would probably pay $100 to go to the park, but put yourself in someone else's shoes who likes parks BUT IS NOT A JUNKY LIKE US. $152 dollars for a family of four, plus parking, plus food, plus games. You are looking at $300 bucks. That's a lot of money. That is all I am saying. Why argue?
Old Timer Tim: SixFlags is $32.00 and season passes were so low it was riduculous. Not a good comparison this year. Yes, Sea World is too high for a zoo. But their season passes were a bargin as well.
Would I take my family...yes. Can many familes afford to go...yes. Are there coupons...yes. Is CP the best amusement park and value...yes. But the bottom line is SOME families cannot afford to go anymore, who used to be able to. That's why attendance is stagnant. Stop blaming the weather. If we had a muggy summer, everyone's excuse would be, "it was just too hot."
Maybe Knoebels in PA has it right. Free admission. Just pay for what you want to ride. Heck, you could probably charge $10.00 to ride MF.
But most of the guests who go to Cedar Point are normal people and not junkies. That's where the term "general public" came from.
OTT makes a good point. You either are going to save big-time on tickets because your kids aren't 48" or your kids are going to be able to ride just about anything in the park. It would cost over $200 for a family of four to enjoy a baseball game - and that's just a few hours.
Dollar for dollar and hour for hour, Cedar Point is a much better value than a movie theatre, baseball game, football game, or even PKI :)
Speaking of weather, the season was much wetter than normal. It may have hurt the crowds, but the landscaping hasn't looked better. It's amazing what you can do when the whole crew can work on something besides watering to keep things alive.
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Cedar Point Virtual Midway
http://www.schmidty.com/cpvirtual
I never said going to a sporting event or to the movies was a better value. People are not going to the movies or sporting events because it is too expensive..that's a fact! CP's attendance is not increasing for the same reason.
I still don't buy the weather bit. We did have more rain early than usual, but I don't remember a lot of storms. I have yet to read a better reason than money..the reason for my post.
*** This post was edited by net on 9/9/2000. ***
I think a lot of it is perception. People get upset over prices but really don't do comparisons. I live in Michigan and do weekly commutes to Ohio. There is basicly nothing around here to do. So I make the trip. I figure based on the amount of times I've gone this season that each trip cost me under $3. I can go to the movies around here and drop $6 and not get the kind of entertainment CP gives. I am shocked at the amount of people that live in this area and don't get season passes. My friend has been there at least two different times and had a partial rain out. Thats a waste of $80. For a few more he wouldn't have to worry about the rain. $80 for the amount of rides CP has comes to a little over a $1 a ride. Not bad.....
Just because there wasnt a lot of storms, doesnt mean that the rain didnt keep the people away. You have to realize that a majority of people get up in the morning, and see that the sky is cloudy or it is raining (most likely a lake effect thing, dont yell, i aint a meteorologist), and they dont go to the park, when by 11:30 or 12:00 the sun was out and it was like any other day at the park. Sometimes I thought that when there was a prediction for storms that the attendance wsa a little higher. I think there is nothing cooler for me than to sit on the beach and watch a huge storm brew up out over the lake and blow it. It is cool. Maybe I am just a freak that way but still...
Yeah attendance was a little under quoted, but so what???? It was A LOT busier than it was last season. MF had a large part to do with that, but still attendance, was up, not down!
As for my view on ticket prices, those people that plan to go to Cedar Point as a summer vacation plan these things way back at the beginning of the year. They get ticket prices, and make estimates on food, room, souvenirs, etc etc, and they put small amounts of money away all year until it is time for them to make the trip. Yeah there are some families that still cant make it, but they probably wouldnt have been to make it in the past either. Jeff made the perfect point with the inflation. A dollar 10 years ago was worth a lot more than it is today, so you cant really argue that point.
I worked at CP for 4 years. My first summer was AM ( After Mantis), not too exciting, but the crowds were huge. 98 was awesome because of PT, but 99 was a flop, Camp Snoopy I dont think caught well until this last year. This year was unbelievable. I worked in Camp Snoopy (see signature) and I was told that Camp Snoopy was tons busier than it was last year.I dont know, I am not a business guy, and I dont ever really want to be a business man, but in review of this season, I would say that it one of the best that CP has ever had.
Thank you
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Final Force Count: 14
Charlie Brown's Cookout 2000
White Water Refreshments 1999
Stockade '97, '
ok,dont forget the whole gas price thing,i being a season pass holder even made 2 or 3 less trips due to it,and im only in northern indiana.
if i were from farther away,i might have only made 1 or 2 trips the whole year even.
every trip i did made however,it didnt look as if the gas prices affected attendance on those days
This has to be one of the most heated threads i have ever read on here.
I have been there all summer, get some time off to check up on whats going on and i get to this.
Just a few quick thoughts...
I have had a few guests approach me with complaints but thats nothing new. Everyone gets a cold fry or pop that isnt cold once in a blue moon, but i have had many more people tell me what a wonderful time they have had.
As for the employees being effected by CF and it trickling down i strongly disagree. I would say 80% of the employees dont communicate with their managers on a level where it would effect their work. Even a greater number then that is lucky to even know the name of the VP who represents their department let alone ever heard of Mr. Kinzel.
Thats all..
To quote Jeff:
"Assuming inflation was steady at 3% per year, the cost has actually gone down in ten years, not up."
Gee jeff, I'm sure what the price was ten years ago, but if the price was any less than $29.12 in 1991, then the admission price to CP has exceeded your given inflation rate.
TO quote Cheeseonastick:
"Yeah attendance was a little under quoted, but so what???? It was A LOT busier than it was last season. MF had a large part to do with that, but still attendance, was up, not down!"
Mr.Kinzel has been quoted as saying that atendance will only be up about 3% this year. Earlier in this tread Jeff stated that changes of 5% or less is considered a stable amount. Therefore, your statement quoted above is a misperception.
Jeff and Cheese on a stick, your biases are affecting your judgement on CP's performance for the year. COmpare to the rest of the amusement park industry, CP has done well. HOwever, as a whole, the amusement park industry has taken a big hit this year. during this last season fun has gone from a high of $20.00 to today s current value of $18.00. If CP's attendance was at record levels, then the stock wouldn't lose 10%. Before people start knowcking analysts, remember, FUN spent record levels on capital improvements to CP this year. Despite what anyone says, to spend that much money on only a 3% increase is a disapointment. That is why the stock has dropped in value. There's also the matter of problems with perilous plunge, but that's for a different website.
Whenever CF gives attendance figures, it's always for the combined attendance of all the parks. If Kinzel said attendance is up 3%, CP attendance must be up by a higher amount, since Dorney is down, Valleyfair is probably down a little and Knotts is flat.
The value of a stock is dependent on many things, not just attendance. Also, since the stock is Cedar Fair, you can’t just look at Cedar Point when evaluating the stock. You have to look at the entire company.
"If CP's attendance was at record levels, then the stock wouldn't lose 10%."
If that was the determining factor in stock price, you're right. However, it's only a small part of the total picture. To evaluate the stock on attendance would be irrational. I've got more than $34K wrapped up in Cedar Fair units, so an emotionally biased approach this is not.
(It's worth mentioning that Cedar Fair rarely outright gives number for attendance, and that the numbers floating around are generally best guesses by analysts or Amusement Today. Instead they tend to talk more about per capita guest spending, which is a more stable figure to watch considering the unpredicatable effect that weather can have on the industry. That said, attendance has had very little variance in the last decade, often coming and going as a combination of weather and new rides.)
Considering the amount of capital investment made this year, combined with a slow 1Q at Knott's and a really soft 2Q at the parks other than Cedar Point, I find it amazing that the earnings per share dropped only a penny compared to 2Q'99. That's pretty remarkable cash flow.
As I said before, the additional shares being issued to management are certainly a contributing factor to diluting the value of the units, combined with the "new economy" investing that has dominated the markets in the last year or two. I should know, I made my dollars and got the hell out of it!
"Despite what anyone says, to spend that much money on only a 3% increase is a disapointment. That is why the stock has dropped in value."
Again, that's a limited view of influence on stock price. I also have to wonder who "anyone" is. As long as the numbers are forward moving and the business is growing (and this business is growing very aggressively), I think that every increase is a step in the right direction. Certainly if the CEO is happy with it, it's good enough for me.
"HOwever, as a whole, the amusement park industry has taken a big hit this year."
Really? That's a bit of an unqualified statement. Certainly Cedar Fair, Six Flags, Disney, Viacom (Paramount) Seagram (Universal), even the smaller family-owned parks like Kennywood/Lake Compounce tend to feel other wise, because they're spending record dollars developing their parks this year. More coasters were built in 2000 than any year ever. Sea World is even getting in to the action. While stock price has been flat on some companies, others have skied. Only one has tanked, Six Flags, and that can be attributed largely to their outrageous debt they're acquiring.
Trust me here... in addition to having a lot of my own money tied up in this business, I watch it very closely. The industry is healthy, and that includes Cedar Fair.
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Jeff
Webmaster/Guide to The Point
Millennium Force laps: 39
SO jeff, Agreed attendance isn't the only thing that determines stock price, interest rates also have a hnad in that. FUN is generally considered an income investment so when interest rates rise, the price per unit of FUN has to drop.
I have to take exception to your statement that six flags hasn't been hit hard this year. The huge amount of capital spending made by six flags made it necessary for them to have an exceptional year. Six flags has not had an exceptional year. That is why their stock price has been battered to one half of what it was a year ago.
It's come to the point that I don't understand what your defending however, my point has always been that the weather this year has affected attendance and has kept it lower than what was expected my FUN management and analysts. Even I don't understand how you can continue to argue that point. Refering agian to my previous message where I quoted the Blade.
"Still, the Millennium Force has not fulfilled all the firm's expectations. Officials hoped it would produce attendance records, but Mr. Kinzel, who won't divulge details, made it clear that no gate records will be broken"
This is FUN expectations, this quote refers to FUN's officials. FUN expected CP to have higher attendance than it did according to this quote and I contend that the reason it didn't have better attendance was because of the weather.
This less than expected attendance is bringing down the price per share. That is why analysts from two companies have down graded it. Yes, you can bad mouth analysts all you want to but all your insults won't mean a thing.
As for CP not releasing their attendance records I am surprised and I do not understand why shareholders do not require it. How does CP determine it's market share of the industry if it does not release this info. ALso, how can their per capita revenue be independently verified if this info. is not release. As a stock holder, doesn't your annual report give this info?
Correction... I said that Six Flags did indeed tank.
I'm not defending anything, only arguing that the Blade is making an unattributed comment. "Officials" could mean the lemon chill guy. The people I talk to (People Who Know(TM)), while admiting they're having a softer year than they would like, never expected to break records.
I am saying that your comment that the industry is "taking a hit" is utterly false, for the reasons I mentioned above.
Furthermore a dip in attendance isn't a major factor in stock price. Not even a little factor, really.
The company doesn't release attendance figures for competitive reasons. Granted, the AT numbers that come out every year have to be pretty close.
What does any of this have to do with anything?
Just that The Blade's report shows the author's complete distance from the industry, the industry is having a banner year, and attendance isn't dropping the stock price (if you can even consider the spread a drop).
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Jeff
Webmaster/Guide to The Point
Millennium Force laps: 39
No offense Jeff, but your “People Who Know” are no more credible then the Blade’s “Officials” to me. In both cases we do not know the persons name and have to trust you and the Blade. Unless you want to give us a real name, your statement that they never expected to break any records could also be coming from the Lemon Chill Guy.
I was also wonder why you think the industry is having a banner year (I am not saying that they are not having a banner year, I just don’t have any facts one way or the other). We all know that it has been a great year for new rides, but is this translating to greater earnings for the amusement companies?
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Bob M.
Regarding my People Who Know(TM), there is a distinct difference between me and The Blade, namely my reputation for being in the know with regards to things Cedar Point. After being "on the air" for three seasons, you build a lot of relationships and get very deep in to things. Granted, you have to be a long time visitor to the site to appreciate that, but I'm not going to go out of my way to reveal everything I know or who I know it from. If I do that, the information ceases to flow.
Why is the industry having a good year? I remember last year reading in a mainstream paper that consumer amusement park spending was up last year, and given that the economy is still in good shape, there's no reason for that to change. So to answer your question, I don't know the industry is having a great year, but I don't see how it couldn't be.
The other thing is the record investment that was made this year. I'd like to see someone calculate the total capital improvement this year made my parks because it has to be huge. You don't spend all of that money if you don't think you'll make it back. I'm sure most parks had significant gains in revenue this year, if 2Q earnings were any indication of what is to come. Mind you, that's not the same as profit, but if you just sit back and collect money you can't grow the business, and investors don't care much for businesses that don't grow.
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Jeff
Webmaster/Guide to The Point
Millennium Force laps: 39