"If CP's attendance was at record levels, then the stock wouldn't lose 10%."
If that was the determining factor in stock price, you're right. However, it's only a small part of the total picture. To evaluate the stock on attendance would be irrational. I've got more than $34K wrapped up in Cedar Fair units, so an emotionally biased approach this is not.
(It's worth mentioning that Cedar Fair rarely outright gives number for attendance, and that the numbers floating around are generally best guesses by analysts or Amusement Today. Instead they tend to talk more about per capita guest spending, which is a more stable figure to watch considering the unpredicatable effect that weather can have on the industry. That said, attendance has had very little variance in the last decade, often coming and going as a combination of weather and new rides.)
Considering the amount of capital investment made this year, combined with a slow 1Q at Knott's and a really soft 2Q at the parks other than Cedar Point, I find it amazing that the earnings per share dropped only a penny compared to 2Q'99. That's pretty remarkable cash flow.
As I said before, the additional shares being issued to management are certainly a contributing factor to diluting the value of the units, combined with the "new economy" investing that has dominated the markets in the last year or two. I should know, I made my dollars and got the hell out of it!
"Despite what anyone says, to spend that much money on only a 3% increase is a disapointment. That is why the stock has dropped in value."
Again, that's a limited view of influence on stock price. I also have to wonder who "anyone" is. As long as the numbers are forward moving and the business is growing (and this business is growing very aggressively), I think that every increase is a step in the right direction. Certainly if the CEO is happy with it, it's good enough for me.
"HOwever, as a whole, the amusement park industry has taken a big hit this year."
Really? That's a bit of an unqualified statement. Certainly Cedar Fair, Six Flags, Disney, Viacom (Paramount) Seagram (Universal), even the smaller family-owned parks like Kennywood/Lake Compounce tend to feel other wise, because they're spending record dollars developing their parks this year. More coasters were built in 2000 than any year ever. Sea World is even getting in to the action. While stock price has been flat on some companies, others have skied. Only one has tanked, Six Flags, and that can be attributed largely to their outrageous debt they're acquiring.
Trust me here... in addition to having a lot of my own money tied up in this business, I watch it very closely. The industry is healthy, and that includes Cedar Fair.
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Jeff
Webmaster/Guide to The Point
Millennium Force laps: 39