Some of these estimates will probably be either too generous or too harsh, but I'll put them out here anyway. Based on a lot of stuff I've heard, here's a rough estimate of how much longer I think each CP coaster might last:
Blue Streak (1964): At least 30 years, likely even longer.
Cedar Creek Mine Ride (1969): At least 10, probably even 20 years.
Corkscrew (1976): Ditto.
Gemini (1978): At least 20 years.
Wilderness Run [ex-Jr. Gemini] (1979): At least 10 years.
Iron Dragon (1987): 10 years at most (I hear it makes a good "transitional" coaster, but I could see it being succeeded in that role in the near future).
Magnum XL-200 (1989): At least 20 years, likely even longer.
Mean Streak (1991): 10 years at most (barring the speculated RMC conversion).
Raptor (1994): ????
Mantis (1996): 10 years at most (barring the speculated Sit-Down/Floorless conversion).
Woodstock Express (1999): 10 years at most (I can see it being replaced by another kiddie/family ride in the near future).
MF, WT, TTD, Maverick, and GK: ????
I'm really interested to see what you guys think of this.
I think it's difficult to put any concrete figures into the longevity of most attractions. It's been said many times before, but what your average coaster enthusiast thinks should and shouldn't be replaced rarely parallels that of the general public. Mean Streak, for example, has had a lot of work put into it (which has been, in my opinion, very effective) and as of last weekend had a half hour wait that spilled out of the entrance. You'll learn much about ride popularity by sitting near the exit and listening to how people talk about the ride as they pass by. You'd be surprised by how many people actually like Mean Streak.
Iron Dragon is an interesting case, due to 2 reasons. One is the the height requirement was raised, reducing its usefulness as a "junior" coaster. The other is that other Arrow suspended coasters are slowly disappearing around the world. Neither of those mean anything significant at the moment, but are worth noting.
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I don't get the height thing on Iron Dragon. If they are genuinely concerned that they may have had it wrong all this time just add some seatbelts. It one of the few rides that doesn't have them. it doesn't really need them but if that could lower the height requirement back down at least it would give the shorter kiddos their coaster back.
I enjoy Mean Streak. I sit towards the front to avoid excessive roughness but as a disclaimer I should mention I'm in my 40's and most days some part of me is already in pain before I get on.
We hadn't tried Mean Streak until May this year. We mistakenly assumed it wasn't a good ride due to the short line. Our first ride was rough-in our opinion, as we had nothing to compare it to. We said never again. After a month, she chips up "lets ride it"! I think this was due to long lines elsewhere, but any ride, on anything, counts in her book! We now ride it regularly, often 2 or 3 times each visit! And always laughing how we get tossed about! We do wait for the front now. But why is the first drop slowed down? I expect it to stay.
Keep passing the fun along!
I believe the drop is trimmed, because when it goes fast, the ride damages quicker. Recently when I have been going, they have had the trims open, and it is a better ride.
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I really hope the park keeps all three of the car rides. They are each set in a nice area and I would hate to see them tear out the trees around the Cadillac Cars, that's one of the few areas of the park where I feel secluded. I think something will eventually happen to Mean Streak but it won't be for a good 3-5 years.
Enjoy the rest of your day at America's Rockin' Roller Coast! Ride On!
You know, now thinking of SRF, I wonder how weird it would look if they tore it down. Just walking by the bridge in FrontierTown without seeing that iconic looking boat splashing into the water. Didn't the original design include a giant Guardian-Like mountain enclosing the inner structure?
Arms Down, Head Back, and Hold On!...Arms Down!...Arms Down......
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