Dumb weather report was wrong!

So I was supposed to go to the park today with my Mom. I have a pass and she bought a ticket and took the day off of work. Unfortunately, the weather forecast scared us and we decided not to go (as it would have been a waste of money if it rained half the day like they predicted). Well of course, the weather report was wrong :( This morning the hour by hour said a 60% chance of rain after 1 pm and now it keeps dwindling. I wonder how many weather reports negatively affect attendance at the park :( I wish I was there right now enjoying the sunny day!!!

This is going to be a long summer if all we talk about is the weather and whatever CPguru pulls out of his ass...

predicting the weather is like flipping a coin your right sometimes and your wrong others....any time you see under an 80% then you might as well go and even if it does rain typically rain at CP doesn't last for long. Understandable being a little cautious as your mom only has a day pass, but you could be a good son and upgrade her single day ticket into a season pass ;)

Hey! At least they have the flag flying the right direction today!

Fixed the title for you. :)

There's going to be a lot of hot, humid days with random afternoon storms this summer, and forecasts that say "partly sunny - chance of rain 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%." These are not bad Cedar Point days.

Other tips:

- Don't look at a forecast more than 24 hours out and think it's the final answer. It's not.

- If the forecast looks questionable or could go either way, see if there are any short term forecasts or hazardous weather outlooks available. If you're brave, the forecast discussion provides good insight into the decision making process. It's not written for a general audience, though.

You didn't miss much shamrock. Most of the big coasters were down much of the day for wind. We were early entry. We managed to get laps on Gatekeeper, Raptor, MF, and Maverick before 10,and then were about 3 trains from riding TTD when it shut down due to wind. Several others soon followed and were up and down all day long.

Thanks for the helpful links Walt!

B&K that does make me feel a little better. It seriously put me in a bad mood today that we didn't go and I've been looking at the web cam and it looks pretty dead which is why we wanted to go this week! It wasn't meant to be and we'll reschedule for another time.

Think how much better you would have felt if you had gone to the park today and didn't have to worry about it raining because the park had a policy that allowed for rain checks.

Seems to me that is money shamrock and his mom could have spent in the park today that is now lost revenue.

I had one day built into my trip last week to visit Europa-Park and even on the morning of our visit, the hour-by-hour forecast was calling for 90% and 80% rain all day but there was only a light mist for maybe 45 minutes the whole day. You just never know what you're going to get.

^^ Holy smokes man. You have made your opinion quite clear, we get it. Now cant ya just move on? It's getting a bit stale.

The PointGuru said:
Think how much better you would have felt if you had gone to the park today and didn't have to worry about it raining because the park had a policy that allowed for rain checks.

Seems to me that is money shamrock and his mom could have spent in the park today that is now lost revenue.

Think how much better if the park didn't have money for Gatekeeper if it had to hand out rain checks for a puddle of water?

Not a refund. A rain check. A business does not lose any money by giving rain checks; in fact it potentially makes much more revenue by having guest in the park longer. What is so hard to understand about that?

so, let's see, he'd have have several options:

1) drive to the park with a rainy forecast hoping to get a rain check but burning off a vacation day AND a tank of gas and then have to take another vacation day & burn more gas

2) while at the park decide if he wants to stay and enjoy the short lines driven off by rain OR get a rain check

3) use his pass & ticket anytime he wants AND only burn 1 tank of gas.

TPG his problem wasn't admission, it was VACATION TIME, which I doubt CP can get back for them

In 2012, 57.3% of Cedar Fair's total net revenue came from admissions. Food, merchandise and games brought in 32% of the total revenue with accommodations bringing in 10.7%.

So, on average, the company gets $26.61/guest for admission. Compare that to what the average guest spends on food, et al, which is $14.69.

For your plan to work, each rain check guest (paying $0 admission for their return visit) would have to spend 181% more than average ($41.30 instead of $14.69) on food, et al, just for the company to break even.

You're right, it's not hard to understand. They're just going to have to sell a lot more cheese-on-a-stick.

But Walt, it'll make the guest feel all warm and fuzzy. And warm and fuzzies is way more important than profits.

I knew using data was the wrong way to go.

As I hear on sports radio all the time: Facts are mean.

Walt said:
...You're right, it's not hard to understand. They're just going to have to sell a lot more cheese-on-a-stick.

And just for the record, they are going about that in the wrong way. Cheese-on-a-Stick isn't even on the menu. It is only listed as a combo with a bag of chips for $6 and change. You can get Cheese-on-a-Stick for just about $5 but the menu doesn't say that.

--Dave Althoff, Jr.

Remember that if a weather forcaste call for a 60% chance of rain, it doesn't mean that the forecast is calling for rain 60% of the day. It means that there is a 60% chance of having ANY rain, even if it there is one short rain shower the forecast was correct. And it also means that you have a 40% chance of staying completely dry.

Imagine being graded on that. In my forecasting courses, there were only two right answers for probability of precipitation - 0% and 100%. And the professor always picked boarderline set ups to forecast.