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Yes Lighthouse does sell out. Usually the cabins before all the camper spaces, but it does happen.
I’d say book early, you can always change your dates if need-be.
I wouldn’t even bet on campsites lasting all that long. I’m booking campsites now for June and September and some weekends already have limited availability.
We couldn’t take the Columbus Day weekend crowds anymore. We used to have a model that worked really well but last time we went (2016) even the food lines were unbearably long.